Ivan Nova (7-6, 4.90 ERA) and Homer Bailey (1-0, 3.18 ERA) start in the second of a three-game series between the Pittsburgh Pirates (54-53) and the Cincinnati Reds (44-64) at PNC Park. The Pirates won the last game 3-2, and Pittsburgh leads the series 1-0. Action begins at 7:05 p.m. ET on Saturday, Aug. 6 and can be seen on FSOH and RTPT.
Starling Marte (.319, 58 Rs, 7 HRs, 37 RBIs, 38 SBs) went 1 for 4 yesterday with one stolen base. Bailey went 5.2 innings, surrendering two runs, striking out six and walking three in a 3-2 win over the Padres in his most recent start. Jay Bruce (.260, 62 Rs, 26 HRs, 83 RBIs, 4 SBs) went 1 for 3 yesterday with one run.
Pittsburgh is a -134 favorite against Cincinnati and the Over/Under (O/U) for this game is sitting at eight runs. The Pirates have an overall money line of -140 and a record as the favorite of 29-28. Within its division, Pittsburgh has an 11-12 record as favorite and a 19-23 record SU. The Pirates have no trouble scoring as they rank fifth in the NL in offense with 4.5 runs per game. The Pirates are one of the best in the NL in terms of hits with an impressive 8.9 per game. Pittsburgh is one of the best in the MLB in terms of steals, swiping 82 bases.
As for their opponent, Cincinnati is coming in with an overall money line of -823 and a disappointing record of 28-57 as the underdog. They have played poorly as the underdog with a 13-22 record against teams in their division, and a 6-4 record SU. The Reds are an excellent base stealing team with 90 stolen bases, ranking third in the MLB. The Reds allow 5.5 runs per game, but have improved upon those numbers in the past 10 games, allowing 3.8 runs per game during that span.
The Pirates lead the season series, 5-4. The Pirates have a 38-45 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they’ll be facing when Bailey takes the mound. Nova (RHP) will be on the hill against the Reds, who have a 36-47 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – PIT, O/U – Over
Notes
In their last game, the Reds lost by a margin of one run. The Pirates are 15-12 in one-run games. The Reds have a 16-21 record in close games.
Cincinnati has won 42% (22-31) of its games when leading after seven innings. However, Pittsburgh has won 43% (21-28) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Reds managed to give up four walks in their last game. They’ll have to pick it up against the Pirates who are heading in with a 27-18 record against opponents who give up that many walks or more.
When they outhit their opponents, the Reds are 32-10. The Pirates have a 35-9 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking 20th, Cincinnati sits in the bottom half of the league in runs, scoring 467 this season. Pittsburgh ranks in the top half with 485.
Ranking 25th, Cincinnati is near the bottom of the league in walks, notching 296 this season. Pittsburgh ranks in the top half at 12th with 342.
When the Pirates hit at least one home run, they are 38-23. When the Reds hit at least one homer, they have a 34-35 record.
