While the favorites to reach the CFP this year have already been projected, the reality is there is a very good chance an underrated team currently considered to be on the outside rises up to claim a spot in the four-team tournament. The Iowa Hawkeyes nearly did last season as they played their way through a soft schedule and nearly upended Michigan State in the Big Ten title game. Could they be in the mix again? All eyes will be on the Houston Cougars as they start the season in the Top 25 but are they legit? We’ll learn the answer to that right away when they face Oklahoma in their opener.
We broke down the numbers, rosters and schedules to figure out which teams we think were most likely to surprise and claim a spot. Here is a look at the four teams with the best chance to crash the CFP.
Houston Cougars
Houston’s biggest obstacle might very well be conference affiliation playing outside of a Power Five group but this team certainly has the potential to do enough to qualify for the playoff. Star quarterback Greg Ward Jr. leads a high-powered offense under head coach Tom Herman and he has plenty of weapons around him to maximize his potential on offense. If they can get past their massive showdown with Oklahoma to start the season, they could very well run the table with a 13-0 record and claim a second straight AAC crown, which should be more than enough to get in. Houston’s schedule includes Oklahoma, Louisville and Memphis so a perfect record should be enough to ensure they make it in.
Iowa Hawkeyes
It’s easy to forget how close Iowa came to reaching the playoff a year ago when they fell one win short of winning a Big Ten title. Fast-forward to this season and the Hawkeyes are primed to contend again with much of the nation’s 22nd-ranked defense back in the mix and a strong cast on offense led by quarterback C.J. Beathard. Iowa might not go undefeated but if they win a Big Ten championship with one loss it could be enough to crash the party in this year’s CFP. Yes, their schedule was pretty easy last year but it’s not all too bad this year either. They’re in the weaker of the two Big Ten divisions. A lot will depend on what happens in their late-season showdown with the Michigan Wolverines, but the good news for Hawkeyes is that they get to host that matchup.
Oklahoma State Cowboys
There won’t be many contending teams with a tougher road schedule than Oklahoma State this season but they certainly have the talent to survive. Quarterback Mason Rudolph has a ton of talent around him – including Barry Sanders Jr., the son of the legendary back. With another year of experience, the Cowboys’ offense should be that much more explosive. Oklahoma State averaged nearly 40 points per game a year ago and if their offense can light it up again this season, it could be enough to win a Big 12 championship and qualify for the ultimate four-team tournament.
Oregon Ducks
The Ducks were devastated by injuries a year ago but still managed to finish just one game back of Stanford for the best record in the Pac-12 North division. If they were merely evaluated on public sentiment, most people would have thought that they finished in last place in the Pac-12.
Fast-forward one year later and with a healthy and improved roster, Oregon will definitely be a player in the college football conversation. The biggest obstacle will be a tough schedule that includes a road through USC, Stanford, Utah and Oregon State in November. Even with the loaded slate it’s impossible to write off the Ducks’ potential. If their offense is back in business, they will be able to beat anyone in the country. The defense will need to be better but quarterback transfer Dakota Prukop Jr. and running back Royce Freeman lead an explosive offense that will give opponents fits. It could be enough to make Oregon a player in the CFP sweepstakes.
