Marco Estrada (7-4, 2.92 ERA) and the Toronto Blue Jays (64-49) meet Drew Smyly (3-11, 5.14 ERA) and the Tampa Bay Rays (45-66) in the second of a three-game division series at the Rogers Centre. The Blue Jays won the last game 7-5, and Toronto leads the series 1-0. The game starts at 7:07 p.m. ET on Tuesday, Aug. 9 and will air on RSN and SUN.
In his last start, Estrada pitched 7.0 innings, allowing one run and striking out seven in a 3-1 victory over the Astros. Edwin Encarnacion (.265, 69 Rs, 31 HRs, 94 RBIs, 2 SBs) continued his strong season yesterday, going 3 for 5 with one run, one home run, and three RBIs. The Rays were victorious over the Royals 3-2 the last time Smyly pitched. He went 7.0 innings, allowing two runs, striking out 10 and walking one. Brad Miller (.260, 51 Rs, 20 HRs, 48 RBIs, 6 SBs) has been doing well offensively for the Rays, going 2 for 4 yesterday with one run and two RBIs.
Toronto, a -165 favorite, will look to capitalize at home against Tampa Bay. The Over/Under (O/U) for the matchup is set at nine runs. The Blue Jays perform well as a favorite with a 52-33 record and have an overall money line of +100. They have impressive records of 19-11 as the favorite and 26-20 SU within their division. Toronto has been struggling as of late. In the last 10 games, Toronto has only averaged 3.5 runs per game compared to the 4.8 it’s averaged on the season. The Blue Jays are a dangerous hitting team with 372 extra base hits, one of the highest totals in the MLB. The Blue Jays typically don’t swing at bad pitches, which has led to an AL-high 3.8 walks per game. As for the Toronto defense and pitching staff, teams routinely struggle to score runs against the Blue Jays, who allow only 4.1 runs per game. The Blue Jays don’t allow many hitters to get on base, ranking fourth in the league with a 1.208 WHIP.
Switching gears, the Rays come into this game with a weak win percentage of .375 when playing as the underdog (18-30) and an overall money line of -2,827. Against divisional rivals, they are 18-23 SU and have played poorly as the underdog with a 9-14 record. They also have some of the most overpowering arms in the AL with an average of 8.4 strikeouts per game.
The Rays have gotten the better of the Blue Jays in head-to-head matchups this season, going 6-5. The Blue Jays will take on a left-hander (Smyly) in this game and have a 15-17 record against left-handed starting pitchers this season. Taking the hill against the Rays will be the right-hander Estrada. They sport a 33-52 record against righties.
Predictions: SU Winner – TOR, O/U – Over
Notes
Tampa Bay has won 38% (17-28) of its games when leading after seven innings. However, Toronto has won 52% (25-23) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Rays managed to give up six walks in their last game. They’ll have to pick it up against the Blue Jays who are heading in with a 13-10 record against opponents who give up that many walks or more.
When they outhit their opponents, the Rays are 28-10. The Blue Jays have a 51-9 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking 25th, Tampa Bay sits near the bottom of the league in runs, scoring 445 this season. Toronto ranks in the top 10 at sixth with 542.
Ranking 16th, Tampa Bay is in the bottom half of the league in walks, notching 332 this season. Toronto ranks in the top five at second with 430.
The Blue Jays are 56-29 in games where they hit one or more home runs. The Rays are 38-40 when they hit at least one homer.
