Mike Leake (8-9, 4.80 ERA) and Brandon Finnegan (7-8, 4.45 ERA) start in the second of a three-game series between the St. Louis Cardinals (59-53) and the Cincinnati Reds (45-66) at Busch Stadium. The Cardinals won the last game 5-4, and St. Louis leads the series 1-0. Action begins at 8:15 p.m. ET on Tuesday, Aug. 9 and can be seen on FSMW and FSOH.
Leake pitched 5.0 innings in his most recent start, surrendering seven runs, striking out two and walking one in a 7-0 defeat to the Reds. Matt Carpenter (.294, 56 Rs, 14 HRs, 55 RBIs) had another good game yesterday, going 2 for 5 with two RBIs. Finnegan went 6.0 innings, surrendering zero runs and striking out four in a 7-0 win over the Cardinals in his last outing.
St. Louis is a -172 favorite against Cincinnati and the Over/Under (O/U) for this game is sitting at eight runs. The Cardinals have an overall money line of -342 and a record as the favorite of 42-35. St. Louis has had an impressive season against division opponents, earning 19-13 and 25-19 records as the favorite and SU, respectively. The Cardinals have no trouble scoring as they rank third in the NL in offense with 5.0 runs per game. The Cardinals are one of the best in the MLB in terms of extra base hits with 390. St. Louis is one of the best in the NL in terms of walks, earning an average of 3.4 per game. St. Louis’s pitching staff has been doing poorly against opposing offenses during the last 10 games, allowing an average of 6.3 runs per game, well above its season average of 4.3. The Cardinals are the fourth-best team in the NL at limiting walks to their opponents, allowing only 2.8 walks per game so far this season.
As for their opponent, Cincinnati is coming in with an overall money line of -947 and a disappointing record of 29-60 as the underdog. They have played poorly as the underdog with a 14-25 record against fellow NL Central members, and a 5-5 record SU. The Reds are an excellent base stealing team with 98 stolen bases, ranking second in the MLB. The Reds allow 5.5 runs per game, but have improved upon those numbers in the past 10 games, allowing 3.0 runs per game during that span.
The Cardinals lead the season series, 6-4. The Cardinals have a 15-18 record against left-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they’ll be facing when Finnegan takes the mound. Leake (RHP) will be on the hill against the Reds, who have a 37-50 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – STL, O/U – Over
Notes
In their last game, the Reds lost by a margin of one run. The Cardinals are 16-17 in one-run games. The Reds have a 16-22 record in close games.
The Cardinals managed to give up five walks in their last game. They’ll have to pick it up against the Reds who are coming in with a 9-10 record against opponents who give up that many walks or more.
When they are outhit, the Reds are 8-51. The Cardinals have a 13-46 record when opponents outhit them.
Cincinnati ranks in the bottom half of the league at 19th when it comes to home runs, hitting 122 this season. St. Louis ranks in the top five with 149.
Ranking 12th, Cincinnati is in the top half of the league in hits, notching 8.19 per game. St. Louis ranks in the top 10 at sixth with 8.77.
Ranking 26th, Cincinnati is near the bottom of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.708). St. Louis ranks in the top five with an OPS of .771.
When the Reds allow at least one home run, they are 31-54. When the Cardinals allow one or more homers, they have a 30-35 record.
