The Oregon Ducks have been a powerhouse team for many seasons, and they could still become one this season, but the difference in the mood surrounding the Ducks, both locally and nationally, is unquestionably different this time around. The Ducks’ defense has never been great over the past decade, but it was often underrated because it would stiffen in the second half and make key plays which set up the offense in good positions. Last year, though, that identity declined. Meanwhile, the offense suffered when quarterback Vernon Adams was injured. Oregon is a more fragile program, not as deep as it was before. Not having Marcus Mariota has left a real gap in the program. It’s hard to assume Oregon will win 10 games this season. That’s just the way things are. The Oregon Ducks might win 10, but that can’t be taken for granted anymore.
Biggest Team Weakness
The Ducks’ weakest point is their defense. They gave up large chunks of rushing yards. They finished below No. 100 in the national rankings in terms of yards per play allowed on first downs. That has to be corrected, but Oregon lost a number of defensive starters from last season and is therefore inexperienced. The Ducks hired Brady Hoke, formerly the head coach at Michigan, to become the team’s new defensive coordinator. That was a really smart move, and the program hopes it will pay off this season. However, being realistic, the Ducks might not have enough talent to make Hoke look good. The Ducks might need a full season in which to adjust and give the 2016 crop of players needed experience for 2017. This is a big part of why Oregon is viewed with a lot of skepticism this season. The defense, paired with Mariota, might not be a problem, but with the current group of quarterbacks, this unit might be exposed as more of a liability.
Biggest Team Strength
The biggest team strength is running back Royce Freeman. He’s likely to go relatively early in the coming NFL Draft. He has explosive speed and can make plays both as a runner and as a receiver out of the backfield. Freeman is such a versatile force, and Oregon is almost surely going to line him up at many places on the field so that defenses can’t comfortably adjust to him and what he does. The Ducks have a strong offensive line and other very solid skill players, including wide receivers. They have great pass catchers and runners; quarterbacking is the one limitation of the offense, but Freeman is the kind of player who can overcome those constraints. How much is the real question and the real issue for this team.
Schedule
The biggest teams on the schedule are Stanford and Washington. The Cardinal are the class of the Pac-12 and the favorite to win the conference, even without quarterback Kevin Hogan. The Huskies have not beaten the Oregon Ducks in over a decade, but they are getting better because they have recruited better. Oregon needs to sweep those games, and at least beat Stanford, in order to win the Pac-12 North.
Outlook
It feels like the Ducks are in a make or break season, which is a bit of a concern. Another sloppy season and they could really start to tumble down the power rankings. However, they have a good month to get things going. They should be able to start at least 2-0 and as long as they aren’t pathetic, they should win at Nebraska and home to Colorado as well to start 4-0. However, the Pac-12 is an improved conference this year and that’s a problem when we don’t know how good the Oregon Ducks will be. Can they beat Washington State on the road? And USC on the road? And Utah on the road? Under Chip Kelly, we’d say sure. However, we’re not as sure with Helfrich running the show. Look for the Ducks to beat Washington, which is not yet ready to win big, but they will fall to Stanford, which keeps them somewhere in the middle of the pack in the Pac 12.
Projection: 2nd In Pac-12 North
