The Oklahoma State Cowboys won a lot of close games last season. They won multiple games in which they had trailed by at least 10 points. Oklahoma State did something not many teams do: It tempted fate but was repeatedly able to scramble out of trouble in the fourth quarter to win. The defense was not strong, but it made a lot of big plays when the Cowboys absolutely needed them. This is a team which the analytics guys and stats researchers won’t like in 2016, because the Cowboys defied the percentages last year. They have to be a lot better this year, at least in the sense that they can’t fall behind by big margins and expect to come back the way the 2015 team did. This team has to establish advantages in the first half and protect leads with a sound running game. The method must change for Mike Gundy’s team this year.
Biggest Team Weakness
The Cowboys’ defense is going to be under the gun. OSU allowed too many big plays last season, especially in late-season losses to Baylor and Oklahoma at home. The Bears and Sooners completely embarrassed the Cowboys by running straight through the front line and then getting speedy players on the edge to stretch the defense and open up the middle all over again. The defensive front has no standouts. There are good linebackers and defensive backs in spots, but there’s no complete unit which is expected to be particularly good. Opposing offensive coordinators are likely to find gaps and tendencies which this defense will not be ready to solve. Big 12 offenses are too good for Oklahoma State’s defense to feel particularly confident this season.
Biggest Team Strength
The Oklahoma State Cowboys know that they have to outscore the opposition in order to have a real chance at success this year. James Washington and Marcell Ateman are excellent wide receivers. Oklahoma State had a lot of good fortune converting third downs last season. That’s another thing which might not be as good in 2016 as it was in 2015, but the difference could be that OSU will find ways to move the ball a lot better on first and second downs. Mason Rudolph is a very good quarterback, and all five starters on the offensive line return for this season. The offense is going to be okay. The natural question is if it can be excellent enough to overcome the weak defense. Even then, the offense should rock. Barry Sanders, Jr., playing at his father’s alma mater, should provide a strong running game to help the passing game. The pieces are there for this team to score 40 points a game.
Schedule
The round-robin nine-game schedule in the Big 12 means the Oklahoma State Cowboys can’t hide from certain teams in its conference. The road trips to Baylor and Oklahoma will be decisive this year, and there’s no way around that point. Oklahoma State plays the toughest Big 12 teams on the road this year. In addition, we’ll see them travel to Kansas State and TCU, both of which will be a challenge. They’ll get to host Texas Tech, Texas and West Virginia, which are three games in which they should be favored. It’s a tough schedule overall – especially when you consider that they play Pittsburgh and Central Michigan in non-conference. That’s not the easiest of non-conference games to go through.
Outlook
Oklahoma State got blown out by Baylor and Oklahoma at home last season. The challenge is now to go on the road and win both of those games this year, which is a tough sell. The Cowboys can probably win in Baylor as the Bears are on a downer of an offseason. They’ll be without their stellar head coach, Art Briles, who built the program. It’s easy to see why they might be vulnerable. But to go to Norman and get the win against a Sooners team that’s going to be better than last year? That’s a stretch. We’ve got the Oklahoma State Cowboys finishing fourth in the Big 12.
Projection: 4th In Big 12
