Conor McGregor will be facing an uphill battle at UFC 202. If “Notorious” can get his revenge, it should go down as one of the biggest victories in UFC history. Let me explain why:
On Paper
Let’s go back to UFC 196. Nate Diaz stepped in on 10 days notice to upset McGregor in a wild fight. McGregor battered the late-replacement early, but McGregor’s momentum eventually wore out. The pendulum swung backwards, and Diaz overwhelmed McGregor on the feet. This led to a panic takedown attempt which sequenced into a submission victory for Diaz.
Even though both fighters only had 10 days to prepare for each other’s style, Conor had the luxury of a full training camp. One man had a full camp to get in shape while the other was drinking tequila on a boat in Mexico a week before. At UFC 202, both fighters will have had 18 weeks to prepare. Logic tells us if Diaz could win with no fight camp, he should be able to win with a full one.
Furthermore, Diaz was able to endure McGregor’s hardest punches. A more calculated and measured approach is to be expected by Conor this time around. McGregor’s head coach, John Kavanagh, agrees with this and thinks this will fight will see the later rounds.
However, Diaz is a known slow-starter and thrives late in the fight. Diaz’s unanimous decision win over Michael Johnson was a perfect showcase of this as he took a while to get going, but once he did, he dominated. Because the majority of Conor’s wins are knockouts in the first round, you would think that would be his preferred approach. But he tried that at UFC 196, and it didn’t work.
Size
So Nate Diaz has the advantage on paper, but he will also have the size advantage. It’s no secret that Diaz is the larger fighter, but what does that mean exactly?
Weight
Weight is one aspect of a fighter’s size. The UFC 202 headlining bout will be contested at 170 lbs. 170 is about the weight Conor McGregor typically sits at without any weight cut. There are rumblings of Diaz being as heavy as 200 lbs, but Nate shut down those rumors himself. To be fair, we don’t know how heavy Diaz is. Anything he says may be an attempt to play with Conor’s expectations. Nevertheless, I expect Diaz at least a small weight cut to make 170.
Even if Diaz is right around 170 lbs, he will still be the heavier fighter. This is because McGregor (who weighed in at 168 lbs for their first fight) has admitted that he is under weight, and will likely come in lighter than before. Let’s wait for the weigh-ins though.
Reach
Reach is another component to size. While weight is something that is still roughly unknown, we know that Nate Diaz holds an advantage in the reach. This is significant because Conor McGregor has a reach advantage against most featherweights and lightweights. Against Diaz though, McGregor will be battling a 2″ reach deficit.
Conor has built his game around being the longer fighter. He’s exceptional at staying out of range of his opponent’s punches and moving just close enough to land his own. Additionally, McGregor’s kicks play a factor at maintaining that distance.
He likes to lull his opponents into playing a “damned if you, damned if you don’t” type of game. If you move forward to try and close the distance on him, he’ll peg you with sharp counters. If you don’t close the distance, he’ll continue to snipe from afar.
This meta was thrown away when McGregor and Diaz threw down at UFC 196. Diaz forced Conor to try and make up the distance by reaching in and over-extending on the left hand. Conor really had to reach for Diaz’s head, which opened up Diaz’s check hook. This took a serious toll on McGregor’s cardio. It takes way more energy to hit a target you have to reach for than one that is in range. Your body has to transfer balance and weight around for each shot, and we saw how quickly Conor faded.
Height
Yet another element of size; Nate Diaz holds a 3″ height advantage. This plays into the fight similarly to Diaz’s reach, but holding a combination of height and reach is a very powerful advantage to have. It further installs the fact that McGregor will need to get closer to his opponent than he usually does. This is where McGregor’s exceptional movement needs to come into play.
Diaz will have some advantages in the clinch because of his height. It’ll be easier for him to land knees to the body and head, but he’ll also have more leverage. While it was brief, Diaz used some great clinch work to wear Conor McGregor down. I fully expect Diaz to issue a clinch-heavy approach in this fight because of how well it plays into his physical advantages. It’s also an area of the game where Conor has not spent very much time.
Mental
Coming into this bout at UFC 202, Nate Diaz should be more confident than ever – and that’s a scary thing. We have seen an unmotivated Nate Diaz before (his disappointing effort against Rafael dos Anjos comes to mind). But a game Nate Diaz is truly one of the best in the world. We saw that in his bout with Michael Johnson, and mos recently with Conor McGregor.
When Diaz defeated McGregor he not only reached an expected level of stardom, but he earned a massive paycheck too. I think Diaz is hungry for another one and will leave no stone unturned in an attempt to defeat McGregor again. But I could be wrong. Diaz may be ready to cash out, and will not show up with the same hunger he did at UFC 196.
Confidence is something Diaz has got to have in his back pocket though. Particularly confidence in his durability. McGregor threw the kitchen sink at him, and still couldn’t get the Stockton-native out of there. We may see him start off a bit more aggressive and really get in Conor’s face early knowing the risk of him getting caught is low. It’s not a typical Nate Diaz approach, but I wouldn’t be surprised if I saw it.
Conclusion
While I definitely don’t doubt Conor’s chances in this fight, I see Nate Diaz as a very difficult style match up for him. The physicality of Diaz will force a new approach out of Conor. Logically speaking, Diaz should have an easy time this time around with a full camp, but MMA defies logic constantly. This is such an amazing fight with so much to talk about, so stay tuned to Get More Sports for more UFC 202 coverage.
