Jake Arrieta (14-5, 2.55 ERA) and Zach Davies (9-5, 3.80 ERA) are on the hill in the last of a four-game series between the Chicago Cubs (76-43) and the Milwaukee Brewers (52-67) at Wrigley Field. The Cubs won the last game 6-1, and Chicago can finish out the series sweep with a win in this game. Action begins at 2:20 p.m. ET on Thursday, Aug. 18 and can be seen on CSCh.
Arrieta pitched 5.2 innings in his most recent start, surrendering one run, striking out six and walking two in a 13-2 win over the Cardinals. Davies went 5.0 innings, surrendering five runs, striking out four and walking one in an 11-5 defeat to the Reds in his last outing. Chris Carter (.220, 56 Rs, 27 HRs, 66 RBIs, 2 SBs) went 1 for 4 yesterday.
This one isn’t expected to be close when Chicago, a substantial -300 favorite, takes on Milwaukee. The Cubs have recorded an overall money line of +106 and have shown high-level performance as a favorite this season with a record of 71-35. Chicago has had an impressive season against division opponents, earning 31-14 and 33-16 records as the favorite and SU, respectively. The Cubs have no trouble scoring as they rank second in the NL in home offense with 4.8 runs per game. Chicago leads the whole NL in walks, earning an average of 4.1 per game. Opposing batters know they’re in for a battle when they play Chicago. The Cubs are the top team when it comes to pitching, allowing a league-low 3.3 runs per game. The Cubs are the top team in the league at limiting hits and walks to their opponents, recording a WHIP of 1.108 so far this season. Opponents have consistently been struck out by the Cubs, who rank third in the NL in strikeouts per game with 8.8.
In the other locker room, Milwaukee is coming in with an overall money line of -866 and a disappointing record of 33-50 as the underdog. They have been on a bit of a dry streak over their last 10 games. They managed a 0-3 record when playing as the underdog. The Brewers are an excellent base-stealing team with an MLB-best 133 stolen bases.
The Cubs have controlled the season series, 8-3. The Cubs have a 50-32 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they’ll be facing when Davies takes the mound. Arrieta (RHP) will be on the hill against the Brewers, who have inferior records against right-handed starting pitchers on the road and overall of 10-29 and 30-52, respectively.
Predictions: SU Winner – CHC
Notes
Milwaukee has won 42% (21-29) of its games when leading after seven innings. However, Chicago has won 68% (40-19) of its games when taking a late lead.
Having scored one run in their last game, the Brewers are going to have to step it up if they want to win this matchup. The Cubs have a 32-2 record in games where opponents scored one run or less.
When they are outhit, the Brewers are 8-56. The Cubs have a 7-27 record when opponents outhit them.
Ranking 20th in home runs, Milwaukee has hit 130 this season. Chicago ranks 13th with 147 home runs.
Ranking 12th, Milwaukee is in the top half of the league in hits, notching 8.14 per game. Chicago ranks in the top 10 at seventh with 8.65.
Ranking 21st, Milwaukee is near the bottom of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.727). Chicago ranks in the top five at third with an OPS of .777.
The Brewers are 32-50 in games where they allow one or more home runs. The Cubs are 39-35 when they allow at least one homer.
