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College Football Preview: Michigan State Spartans

The 2015 Michigan State Spartans had the senior quarterback and the veteran roster which – one would expect – put them right in the thick of the national championship chase. Yet, Michigan State wound up making the College Football Playoff in a way no one ever could have imagined. The Spartans needed a blocked punt on the final play of the game to win at Michigan. Then they needed one of their best defensive performances in program history to somehow win at Ohio State without that aforementioned senior quarterback, Connor Cook. Michigan State then won the Big Ten by beating Iowa on a night when Cook played, but his arm strength was next to zero. Michigan State produced a 22-play touchdown drive, most of it running the ball, in the fourth quarter to beat the Hawkeyes and advance to the playoff.

This year, Cook is gone. Tyler O’Connor will replace Cook, and many will think that the Michigan State Spartans’ luck will run out. However, they won without Cook (Ohio State) and also when he was well below 100 percent (Iowa). This team loves to prove the naysayers wrong. It could do so again.

Biggest Team Weakness

It’s impossible to look at this roster and avoid discussing the passing game. Cook became an excellent pocket passer in his time at Michigan State, and O’Connor has to prove that after sitting behind the number one guy for years, he’s good enough to make the most of what will be his only season as the MSU starter from day one. Michigan State’s running game, with L.J. Scott, should actually be better, but the passing game has to open up the running game, not the other way around. The Michigan State Spartans has to be able to hit big plays so that the running game not only has more space in which to operate, but so it doesn’t have to carry the full workload. Michigan State simply faces a lot of limitations here, and it will be hard to overcome them against the great defenses of Michigan and Ohio State.

Biggest Team Strength

The defense does most of the work for this program. It was the case last year, and it will continue to be the case this year. The linebackers are especially accomplished. Riley Bullough, Jon Reschke, Ed Davis – who missed last season with an injury but is now healthy – Chris Frey, and Andrew Dowell. Coach Mark Dantonio can rotate players in and out. He has depth. He has experience. He has a lot to work with. This might end up being one of the best defenses in the country and the Spartans will have to rely on them as they fight through the rugged Big Ten schedule.

Schedule

Last year, Michigan State visited Michigan and Ohio State and somehow won both road games. This year, the Michigan State Spartans host those rivals, giving MSU a real chance of being able to repeat as Big Ten East Division champion and Big Ten champion. This team, given its lack of firepower, will need that kind of help. They have a tough test in Week 2 at Notre Dame, so we’re going to learn a lot about this team very quickly.

Outlook

Getting Ohio State and Michigan at home really helps, but will it help enough? It’s hard to imagine Michigan State getting all the right bounces for a second straight season against the cream of the crop in the Big Ten

The main issue is the offense right now as it’s hard to bank on this team doing so well without a steady hand at the quarterback position. With Cook, we knew what we’d get out of him on a weekly basis and we had a pretty good idea that in most settings, he wouldn’t get rattled. Even with Cook the offense wasn’t the most dominant. Now without him, we’re not sure how big of a step back they’ll take. Sparty’s defense should be strong as usual, but until we see what this offense – specifically, the passing game –can do, we can’t bank on it. Chances are the Michigan State Spartans will fall off the pace this season.

Projection: 3rd In Big Ten East

Written by Geoff Harvey

Geoff Harvey has been creating odds and betting models since his days in the womb, just don't ask him how he used to get his injury reports back then. Harvey contributes a wealth of quality and informational content that is a valuable resource for any handicapper.

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