Vince Velasquez (8-5, 4.14 ERA) and Mike Leake (8-9, 4.78 ERA) start in the last of a three-game series between the Philadelphia Phillies (58-66) and the St. Louis Cardinals (65-57) at Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies won the last game 4-2, and the series is currently tied 1-1. Action begins at 1:35 p.m. ET on Sunday, Aug. 21 and can be seen on CSPh and FSMW.
Velasquez pitched 5.2 innings in his most recent start, surrendering five runs, striking out 10 and walking one in a 15-5 defeat to the Dodgers. Maikel Franco (.251, 53 Rs, 22 HRs, 72 RBIs, 1 SB) continued his strong play yesterday, going 2 for 4 with one run and one RBI. Leake went 6.0 innings, surrendering three runs, striking out four and walking one in a 6-4 win over the Cubs in his last outing. Matt Carpenter (.288, 62 Rs, 15 HRs, 56 RBIs) has been successful at the plate, going 2 for 3 yesterday.
St. Louis takes on Philadelphia as a -127 favorite. The Over/Under (O/U) for the matchup is sitting at eight runs. The Phillies have an overall money line of +661 and a record as the underdog of 39-53. The Phillies have seen an uptick in scoring as of late, averaging 5.1 runs during the last 10 games compared to their season average of 3.8 runs per game. Philadelphia’s pitching staff has been doing poorly against opposing offenses during the last 10 games, allowing an average of 6.5 runs per game, well above its season average of 4.7.
In games where it is the favorite, St. Louis has a 44-36 record and an overall money line of +71. They played solid baseball as the favorite over their last 10 games with a 3-1 record and a 7-3 record SU. Offensively, they average five runs per game on the road, which is the best in the NL. The Cardinals have a dynamic offense, ranking third in the league with 430 extra base hits. When it comes to issuing walks, the Cardinals have the fifth-fewest in the NL with an average of just 2.9 walks allowed per game.
The Cardinals lead the season series, 4-2. The Phillies have a 43-52 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they’ll be facing when Leake takes the mound. Velasquez (RHP) will be on the hill against the Cardinals, who have a 48-36 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – STL, O/U – Over
Notes
The Phillies are coming into this game after allowing one walk during their last outing. The Cardinals have a 6-14 record when opponents give up one walk or less.
When they are outhit, the Phillies are 14-52. The Cardinals have a 14-50 record when opponents outhit them.
Ranking 23rd in home runs, Philadelphia has hit 128 this season. St. Louis ranks fourth with 169 home runs.
Ranking 13th, Philadelphia is in the top half of the league in hits, notching 8.11 per game. St. Louis ranks in the top 10 at sixth with 8.80.
Ranking 29th, Philadelphia is near the bottom of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.692). St. Louis ranks in the top 10 at sixth with an OPS of .774.
The Cardinals are 35-37 in games where they allow one or more home runs. The Phillies are 26-52 when they allow at least one homer.
