Jimmy Nelson (7-13, 4.26 ERA) and the Milwaukee Brewers (56-72) go up against Jameson Taillon (3-3, 2.92 ERA) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (65-61) in the third of a four-game division series at Miller Park. The Pirates won the last game 5-3, and Pittsburgh leads the series 2-0. The game starts at 7:10 p.m. ET on Saturday, Aug. 27 and will air on FSWI and RTPT.
In his last start, Nelson pitched 6.0 innings, giving up two runs and striking out four in a 4-2 victory over the Rockies. Ryan Braun (.318, 66 Rs, 24 HRs, 74 RBIs, 14 SBs) played well again yesterday, going 2 for 5 with one stolen base. The Pirates were unsuccessful against the Astros 3-1 the last time Taillon pitched. He went 8.0 innings, allowing two runs, striking out eight and walking one. David Freese (.273, 54 Rs, 12 HRs, 49 RBIs) went 1 for 4 yesterday.
Milwaukee, a +137 underdog, will look to capitalize at home against Pittsburgh. The teams combine to set the Over/Under (O/U) at eight runs. The Brewers have a losing record of 36-54 when playing as the underdog and an overall money line of -791. They have not performed well against their division, earning a SU record of 17-30 and a 13-25 record when they were the underdog. The Brewers are a nightmare on the bases for opponents with an MLB-high 147 steals.
Across the field, the Pirates have a record of 34-35 when they are favored and are -74 overall with the money line. Over the past 10 matchups, the team is 5-5 SU and has played poorly as the favorite with a 1-5 record. When it comes to scoring, the Pirates haven’t performed as well against teams from the NL Central. During those games, they averaged three runs per game, below their 4.5 runs per game season average.
The Pirates have mostly come out on top against the Brewers in their previous 11 games this season, earning a 6-5 record. The Brewers will take on a right-hander (Taillon) in this game. They have struggled against right-handed starting pitchers this season, going 32-55. Taking the hill against the Pirates will be the right-hander Nelson. They sport a 46-53 record against righties.
Predictions: SU Winner – PIT, O/U – Over
Notes
Milwaukee recorded at least two errors for the 26th time this season.
The Brewers managed to give up four walks in their last game. They’ll have to pick it up against the Pirates who are coming in with a 34-21 record against opponents who give up that many walks or more.
It looks like the Pirates have a slight leg up on the Brewers, as the Pirates have won their last two games while the Brewers have lost their last two.
When they outhit their opponents, the Pirates are 41-10. The Brewers have a 44-9 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking 24th in runs, Milwaukee has earned 526 this season. Pittsburgh ranks 16th with 569 runs.
Ranking 10th, Pittsburgh is in the top 10 of the league in walks, notching 412 this season. Milwaukee ranks in the top five at second with 497.
When the Brewers hit at least one home run, they are 44-36. When the Pirates hit at least one homer, they have a 47-27 record.
