CC Sabathia (8-10, 4.33 ERA) and Kevin Gausman (5-10, 3.92 ERA) take the hill in the last of a three-game series between the New York Yankees (67-61) and the Baltimore Orioles (70-59) at Yankee Stadium. The Yankees won the last game 13-5, and New York leads the series 2-0. Action begins at 1:05 p.m. ET on Sunday, Aug. 28 and can be seen on MASN and YES.
Sabathia pitched 7.0 innings in his most recent start, surrendering one run, striking out seven and walking one in a 5-1 win over the Mariners. Carlos Beltran (.288, 58 Rs, 24 HRs, 73 RBIs) had another good game yesterday, going 2 for 4 with one run. Gausman went 6.0 innings, surrendering zero runs, striking out two and walking two in an 8-1 win over the Nationals in his last outing. Manny Machado (.306, 90 Rs, 31 HRs, 81 RBIs) has been successful at the plate, going 2 for 5 yesterday with one run.
Baltimore takes on New York as a -118 favorite. The Over/Under (O/U) for the matchup is sitting at nine runs. The Yankees have an overall money line of +109 and a record as the underdog of 23-33. New York has had a discouraging season against division opponents, earning records of 10-17 and 21-27 as the underdog and SU respectively. The Yankees have seen an uptick in scoring as of late, averaging 6.4 runs during the last 10 games compared to their season average of 4.3 runs per game. As for the pitchers, the Yankees are the top team in the AL at limiting walks to their opponents, allowing only 2.5 walks per game so far this season. Opponents have consistently been struck out by the Yankees, who lead the AL in strikeouts per game with 8.8.
As for their opponent, Baltimore is coming in with an overall money line of +980 and an impressive record of 47-22 as the favorite. They played solid baseball as the favorite over their last 10 games with a 3-1 record and a 4-6 record SU. The Orioles have a dynamic offense, ranking fifth in the league with 430 extra base hits. The Orioles allow 4.7 runs per game, but have damaged those numbers in the past 10 games, allowing 8.0 runs per game during that span.
The Yankees lead the season series, 7-5. The Yankees have a 50-41 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they’ll be facing when Gausman takes the mound. Sabathia (LHP) will be on the hill against the Orioles, who have a 17-18 record against left-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – NYY, O/U – Over
Notes
New York has won 55% (36-29) of its games when leading after seven innings. However, Baltimore has won 61% (34-22) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Orioles managed to give up seven walks in their last game. They’ll have to pick it up against the Yankees who are heading in with a 7-1 record against opponents who give up that many walks or more.
When they are outhit, the Yankees are 12-50. The Orioles have an 18-46 record when opponents outhit them.
Ranking first in home runs, Baltimore has hit 202 this season. New York ranks 18th with 146 home runs.
Ranking 11th, New York is in the top half of the league in hits, notching 8.51 per game. Baltimore ranks in the top five with 8.95.
Ranking 23rd, New York is near the bottom of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.725). Baltimore ranks in the top five with an OPS of .774.
When the Orioles allow at least one home run, they are 41-47, well-matched with the Yankees who are 39-49 when allowing at least one homer.
