Nick Diaz will be returning to the UFC on December 13th to face Rafael Dos Anjos in what will be his first fight in over a year. The Lightweight bout will be on the main card of the UFC on FOX 13 event headlined Junior Dos Santos vs Stipe Miocic. With the popularity of Diaz and his long layoff, where the line comes in for this match is anybody’s guess, but Dos Anjos should be favored in the match.
Dos Anjos has won seven of his last eight bouts in the UFC, losing only to Khabib Nurmagomedov. He holds wins over former champion Benson Henderson and Donald Cerrone among his seven wins and this is going to be Dos Anjos’ 17th UFC fight.
For Diaz, the facts are that in addition to the long layoff, he was 1-2 in his last 3 fights with the UFC and he finds himself far, far away from big fights or title contention. Granted, he left on a high note with a first round TKO of Gray Maynard, but it is hard to know what MAynard has left in the tank and what that win means. Prior to that, he clashed with two of the division’s best, Josh Thomson and Benson Henderson, and he came out on the losing end.
It will be interesting to see if Diaz has changed at all as a fighter while he was away. There is no question he has the raw mindset of a fighter and a competitor, and there is little doubt he has great Jiu Jitsu and is a good boxer. Though he usually has height and reach advantages and will in this fight, his lanky frame has appeared weak at times against the best Lightweights, and that weakness is magnified by his JJ tendency to pull guard, which in MMA is tantamount to giving up the take-down.
If Diaz can keep the fight standing, he can keep Dos Anjos at the end of his jab and establish distance and then pile on the pressure in increasing amounts as the fight goes on, that is his likely formula for winning.
Dos Anjos will likely come in and look for the take-down, taking his chances working top position. Dos Anjos has been around a long time and paid his dues, and he must realize what a high profile win this could be. With some of the guys on his resume, it wont even be his hardest fight.
