By using the same template that the Breeders’ Cup utilized last year, let’s take an early look at the Breeders’ Cup Juveniles Fillies and the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint. They were the first 2 races carded on the final Breeders’ Cup Day last year and that’s as good a spot to start as any. They will be run November 5 at Santa Anita.
The most talented baby fillies in the world have their day in the Juvenile Fillies and a win in this race almost always means that the heroine will be rewarded. The Eclipse Award as the best in her division is in the balance.
Speed has been very good in the Juveniles Fillies as the last 2 winners went wire-to-wire. If Daddy’s Lil Darling is going to win this race, she will have to go against the recent trends. She was troubled in her debut, stretched out to a mile and won and then proved she could handle a muddy track. She won the Grade 2 Pocahontas at Churchill Downs and then ran out of real estate on October 7. She tried to come from 10th of 14 but fell a length short to Dancing Rags.
Yellow Agate has made no mistakes so far and she was extra game taking the Grade 1 Frizette on October 8. She is in the good hands of Christophe Clement and she is bred to run all day long.
Union Strike is lightly-raced but talented. She was troubled in her debut but graduated next out in the Grade 1 Del Mar Debutante with an 81 Beyer Speed Figure. Her winning dam also dropped Handsome Mike, who took a Grade 2 and earned over a million.
Noted and Quoted has a pedigree that screams sprint but she was impressive in her first route taking the Grade 1 Chandelier at Santa Anita. Trained by Bob Baffert, if you go deep into Noted and Quoted’s pedigree players will see the near $600,000 earner and stakes winner Silver Heart.
Sweet Loretta is the biggest gun from the East Coast. She was the worst-kept secret in her debut and won but 7 and is now unbeaten in 3 starts. In her last race, the Grade 1 Spinaway, she tracked the leaders and won in a dead-heat with Pretty City Dancer.
Pretty City Dancer will miss the Breeders’ Cup with an ankle injury.
Over the decades the Juveniles Fillies has been run according to form. Going into 2014 and since 1984 favorites in the Juvenile Fillies had won 57% of the time. But 2 years ago Take Charge Brandi rocked the boat in a huge way going wire-to-wire as the longest shot on the tote board to pay $125.40.
Order was restored last year when Songbird dominated at 3-5.
Despite the success of the favorites, one could still get paid in this race as the average Juvenile Fillies superfecta had paid over $3,500 going into 2014. Take Charge Brandi keyed a life changing superfecta hit of $97,600. Songbird spoiled the windfall profits though as last year the Juvenile Fillies superfecta paid less than $400.
When evaluating this race at crunch time, pay strict attention to the pace and don’t get caught up in the hype.
They say speed kills but it won’t kill the top contenders in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint. The speedballs will be going about six and a half furlongs on the tricky Santa Anita hillside course.
This course features the only right-hand turn in North America. Horses will start at the top of the hill near Baldwin Avenue. They will then race downhill, make a right turn nearing the main Santa Anita turf course, cross the dirt of the main track and roll to the wire. Obviously, having experience on this course is tantamount.
Ambitious Brew has succeeded on the hillside and that is huge. He is coming off a win in the split Eddie D. Stakes. He has been in the exacta in 9 of his 14 turf races and looms a legit factor.
Holy Lute won the faster half of the Eddie D. and he is agile enough to overcome bad trips.
Acapulco has won 3 of her 5 starts. She won a Group 2 race in England, ran second to males last year and has won both of her starts this year. She brings a super track and kick style to the party and is trained by Wesley Ward, a very good conditioner.
The Turf Sprint was first run in 2008. Going into last year, the average payoff for this race was over was double digits and last year Mongolian Saturday made the lead at the top of the land and held on by a neck. He paid nearly $34. Mongolian Saturday will likely be back for more after he won the Grade 3 Woodford Stakes at Keeneland on October 8.
At this abbreviated distance, the logic is to follow horses with speed but the pace will be so hot that options are open. Runners than have the ability to maintain contact early and quicken will loom dangerous.
Early Report on Breeders’ Cup Players
