The Dallas Mavericks proved all of the experts wrong when they defied expectations and made the postseason a year ago. That said, it will be that much more difficult to repeat as a playoff team this season. Dirk Nowitzki is another year older and despite being destined for an eventual rebuild the Mavericks once again retooled with the goal of getting back to the postseason. A busy offseason should mean Dallas will be a competitive team again in 2016-17 but there are obvious reasons to expect regression this season.
Offseason Changes
The Dallas Mavericks added Seth Curry, Harrison Barnes and Andrew Bogut but these are fringe moves that won’t necessarily move the needle for them. Dallas threw a max contract at Barnes with the hope that he could bounce back from his disastrous playoff run. A lot of people feel like this was a waste of money because he’s rarely shown the ability to be the leading scorer on the team. The Mavs are paying for potential. Also, Dallas Mavericks fans saw the team swing and missing with a small forward recently as the Chandler Parsons contract turned out to be a disaster.
Meanwhile, bringing in Bogut should be a potential upgrade at the center position if he can stay healthy. He’s a solid defensive presence but he has minimal impact at the offensive end, Meanwhile, the Curry they signed is Steph’s brother Seth, who might actually be an underrated asset considering his three-point shooting ability and the progression he has made over the past couple of years. The Kings never really gave Curry extended playing time or good coaching, but the Dallas Mavericks should be able to offer both. The team also signed Quincy Acy to provide some depth to their frontcourt, but he’s just a bench body. Overall, the Mavericks were active but it doesn’t look like they will necessarily be any better.
Strengths
Nowitzki proved last year that he still has something left in the tank when he averaged 18.3 points, 6.5 rebounds and 1.7 three-point shots per game while hitting 44-percent of his shots from the field. Nowitzki hasn’t hit a wall just yet and Dallas is clearly intent on riding his talent until he is finished. Barnes should be a decent replacement for the departed Chandler Parsons. Parsons was often injured, so Barnes should at least solidify the position. At center, Bogut should be an upgrade over Zaza Pachulia so the Dallas Mavericks frontcourt will be better on paper. Wesley Matthews bounced back from an Achilles injury with a strong season a year ago and he and Deron Williams could provide Dallas with a solid veteran backcourt tandem if they can stay healthy. This is a decent starting lineup but not necessarily one that’s going to make any noise in the Western Conference.
Weaknesses
Even despite his strong numbers last year, a 38-year-old Nowitzki cannot be the best player on a championship contender. The Mavericks were lucky to stay healthy for most of last year despite Nowitzki and Williams’ age as well as Matthews’ injury history, but they might not be as fortunate this season. And Nowtizki is declining. He’s still a decent starter but he’s no longer and All-Star.
There are plenty of capable options on this roster but the Mavericks still lack the star player to turn to in clutch situations. There isn’t much quality on the bench either, which could mean greater concern if Dallas runs in to injuries at any point.
Outlook
The Mavericks overcame the DeAndre Jordan debacle to make the playoffs despite an aging core and a lack of depth but they will be in tough to repeat this season. The odds are that Dallas isn’t nearly as lucky when it come to staying healthy and the depth isn’t good enough to carry the load once the injury bug hits. The Mavericks appear determined to push for a championship until Nowitzki finally runs out of gas and this could be the year they finally hit a wall with so many other teams on the rise in the Western Conference.
Prediction: 5th in Southwest Division; 10th in Western Conference
