Making winning horseracing decisions takes insight and guts. The key to making money in this sport is making the right moves at the right time and staying away from horrible determinations.
There are many of us throughout the country that has been asked by the significant other ‘how did it go today at the track? Some up us fudged on the answer.
My stock line was ‘I broke even, but I had a $350 hot dog’.
One of the ways of making horseracing decisions is to stay away from the bad moves. One of the really bad moves is betting on an ordinary runner that suddenly wakes up and runs his best race by light years.
This happens often enough when a mediocre horse wins a race in his last outing and while doing so, puts up a ‘number’ huge enough to win a stakes or maybe even a Breeders’ Cup race.
The reasons for a huge number from such an unassuming racer could run the gambit including catching the golden path on a severely biased surface or suddenly finding himself the lone speed on a speed favoring course. It’s also possible that the runner may have gotten the dream trip, sitting behind 2 or more dueling frontrunners. Another possible reason is that the other logical contenders all fell into the trap of encountering severe trouble. Sometimes a runner wins because he is just facing a weak group of runners that return to run poorly.
If one can discover why there was a superb performance, making good horseracing decisions becomes a bit easier and it may lead to a particular horse being tossed from consideration.
This occurred last Sunday at Keeneland when Royal by Nature was the third beating choice in the Grade 3 Dixiana Bourbon Stakes. The colt had won his first two races but he wasn’t beating anybody. The horse that ran second to Royal by Nature in his debut lost his next 2 races. In the Bourbon Stakes Royal by Nature was sitting mid-pack early but faded badly when the real racing began. Keep Quiet ended up winning the Bourbon Stakes.
Another case in point occurred last Monday at Santa Anita when Bowies Hero was sent off as the 2-1 favorite in the $102,000 Zuma Stakes. Bowies Hero was making his second start after winning his first race but the win was a bit on the phony side. The horse that ran second in that victory lost his next three races. It’s always a chore to beat winners right after breaking the maiden and Bowies Hero did not deserve to be the favorite. Bowies Hero chased early and finished eighth. Big Score won the Zuma Stakes.
But even if you can’t find the reason for the out of place stellar performance leading to a career race, that runner is not the best of bets next time out and here’s why.
First off, even if the huge performance last out was somehow legitimate, the runner is going to be grossly over bet at the windows and the value goes right out the window.
And secondly, should you figure out why he ran so well, it’s questionable whether he will get the same kind of Disneyland dream journey.
Sometimes, players at the track can’t see the forest for the trees and making winning horseracing decisions becomes difficult. When looking at a particular race, sometimes you have to take a runner’s overall record and evaluate that instead of just the most recent one or 2 efforts.
Often times in cheaper races, bettors will come across a runner with just one win but he has been knocking on the door. Maybe the runner has been in the money in 7 of his last 8 efforts but has not won and today he faces a poor field.
This runner typically takes a lot of betting action but said runner is one of the worst bets in the game.
These runners are often 1 for 8 or 1 for 14 or even worse and there is a reason for some many loses.
Some horses just don’t have that will to win. Horses by nature have a herd mentality and some just never learned to win or they are never trained properly to win.
These horrible win bets often manage to hit the board with some doing so 60% of the time. But for some known or perhaps unknown reason, they can’t seem to put it altogether once again to visit the winner’s circle.
Even if the runner is entered at an all-time low class placement while showing a strong second in his last out performance the buyer must beware. Runners can look like a cinch, but as if it is scripted before the gates open, the racer finds yet another way to lose even if he has to invent one.
Players can use these runners in the exotics including exactas, trifectas and superfectas but please resist the temptation of using them on top!
Making Winning Horseracing Decisions
