Thursday Night Football belongs solely to the NFL Network this week as the Miami Dolphins (1-2) travel to southern Ohio to take on the Cincinnati Bengals (1-2). It’s way early in the season to be saying this, but I’m saying it anyway. Whoever loses this game watches its season fall apart after tonight.
The Game: Miami at Cincinnati (-8)
The History
For two teams that have been in the AFC a while, the Dolphins and Bengals have only played 21 times. The Dolphins have a massive edge in those games, posting a 16-5 record.
The Dolphins are currently riding a three-game win streak over the Bengals going back to 2010. They’ve all been close games, with the last Miami win coming on Oct. 31, 2013 in a 22-20 overtime victory.
The Dolphins won nine straight games over the Bengals from Oct. 9, 1978 through Oct. 1, 1995. For two teams that were both perennial playoff and Super Bowl contenders in the 1980s, that’s a surprising string of dominance from the Dolphins.
Even more surprising, the Dolphins and Bengals have met in the postseason only once, a 34-16 Miami win on Dec. 23, 1973.
The Dolphins on Offense
Miami comes into the game hurting. Arian Foster, to no one’s surprise, isn’t expected to play. Neither is tight end Jordan Cameron and center Mike Pouncey, who has yet to suit up this season. Of the three running backs behind Thomas, Isaiah Pead is probably the best, but Daniel Thomas actually has the carries this season, averaging 3.8 yards a touch and scoring two touchdowns.
At quarterback, Ryan Tannehill’s primary weapons are bangled up. Jarvis Landry is one of the best wideouts and DeVante Parker has shown the flashes that made him a first round pick last year. Both guys were listed as questionable on Wednesday’s injury report.
The Bengals on Offense
Cincinnati comes in mostly healthy with the exception of tight end Tyler Eifert who hasn’t played a game this season. After a solid start to the season at quarterback, Andy Dalton was rendered ineffective by the Denver Broncos defense last week, passing for just 206 yards with no touchdowns and a pick. On the bright side, wideout A.J. Green bounced back after a disappearing act against the Steelers and running back Jeremy Hill plowed through the Denver defense for his best game of the season, gaining 97 yards, averaging 5.7 yards per carry and scoring two touchdowns.
The Dolphins on Defense
Miami is nearly as banged up on defense as they are offense. Neither starting outside linebacker, Koa Misi and Jelani Jenkins, are expected to play and middle linebacker Kiko Alonso is questionable with a hamstring issue. The Dolphins should still be strong up front, but this is the same unit that nearly gave a game against the Browns away a week ago, especially int he secondary. There’s a big difference between the wide receivers Cleveland and Cincinnati bring to the table.
The Bengals on Defense
Of all the disappointments of last week, none showed up more on the scoreboard the Bengals’ inability to stop Trevor Siemian and the Denver Broncos’ anemic offense. Cincinnati should have had a significant advantage there, but instead Siemian looked like the second coming of Peyton Manning. The talent difference between Siemian and Tannehill is significant, but Tannehill isn’t exactly known for his quick mind. The Bengals would be smart to play it basic, let their front four led by Geno Atkins and Carlos Dunlap, do their job and stay honest behind them. Blitzing Tannehill, even with a banged up Landry, could be a recipe for some big, easy plays.
The Coaches
Marvin Lewis is second only to New England’s Bill Belichick as the NFL’s current longest tenured coaches. Lewis has a 112-92 record with the Bengals and a .549 winning percentage. Meanwhile on Miami’s sideline Adam Gase is head coaching his fourth game, with three pretty lackluster efforts so far this season. The advantage goes to Lewis and it’s significant.
The Pick
The experts of the world are not swayed by any upset talk this week, with 92 percent going with the Bengals. I like Cincy to win, but that spread is too big, especially on a short week. Bengals 24, Dolphins 20
