Breeders’ Cup projections are never easy to make weeks ahead of time, but there are some facts about the Breeders’ Cup Sprint and Mile that need to be shared.
These races will be held at Santa Anita on November 5 and Breeders’ Cup projections about the $1. 5 million Breeders’ Cup Sprint have to start with Lord Nelson.
Trained by Bob Baffert, Lord Nelson has never lost sprinting at Santa Anita. He is coming off a win in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship. He has the preferred stalk and pounce style that is so effective in this race over the decades and he has not tasted defeat this year.
Baffert has another bullet in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint with Drefong as the trainer will be looking for his fifth win in this race. Troubled in his debut last year, he is unbeaten in four races since. He shipped across the country and won the Grade 1 King’s Bishop at Saratoga in August. The son of Gio Ponti has trained like the proverbial Swiss clock since with best of the morning works all over the tab. Drefong has the pedigree to star as Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner and over $800,000 earner Action This Day materializes on the bottom side.
The defending Breeders’ Cup champ Runhappy can be left out of Breeders’ Cup projections for this race as that runner is pointing to the Dirt Mile. He figures to be a handful in that race.
Ron Ellis trains Masochistic. The veteran has won eight of his thirteen races but he could be up against it in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint. He seems to be a ‘need the lead’ type and he could have a tough time utilizing his speed. When challenged early, he has had a tendency to give up the ghost. He did it in this very race last year when he pushed the issue briefly but faded to run dead last.
Invaders that deserve to be on the Breeders’ Cup projections list include A. P. Indian, Joking, Delta Bluesman and Limousine Liberal.
Expect a California-based runner to be in the trifecta in the BC Sprint. Going into last year, that result happened 24 straight times. The superfecta in this race last year was a bit light at a bit over $5,000 but before 2015, the average superfecta in this race paid over $18,000.
Although Tepin lost her last race in the First Lady, the feeling is she will rebound in the $2 million Breeders’ Cup Mile. The First Lady was a nice prep but the money will be down at Santa Anita.
Ironicus closed into a slow pace in the Shadwell Turf Mile when falling a head short of victory and he will have a much better shot to win here if the pace is fast at Santa Anita.
The local hopes in the Breeders’ Cup Mile will be carried by the underrated Midnight Storm, and What a View. Making Midnight Storm one of the key Breeders’ Cup projections is basically a no-brainer. He has won eight of his eighteen starts, is repeatedly proven at Santa Anita and he has won his last three races including the Grade 1 Shoemaker at the Breeders’ Cup site.
What a View lost his best chance in his last race at entry time when he drew the extreme outside post. He pushed the issue briefly but was not punished and will be forwardly placed in the Breeders’ Cup Mile. Five of his career six have come at Santa Anita.
Miss Temple City beat the boys in the Shadwell and will be back for more in the BC Mile. In her first win of the year she got a perfect three-hole trip. She will be making her first foray to the West Coast but she has won at a number of different venues.
Breeders’ Cup projections for the BC Mile would not be complete without listing a pair of Europeans. Limato is one serious horse. He has won eight of thirteen races with four seconds. He has won multiple Group 1s.
Aidan O’Brien will be represented by Alice Springs. The filly started out 2016 slowly but has won a pair of Group 1s at a mile.
As far as the betting has been concerned in this race, don’t be scared to swallow the chalk. Going into this race last year the favorite had won the Mile 37% of the time and last year the second choice won.
Before last year the average winner of the BC Mile paid over $21 while the average superfecta returned nearly fourteen grand. Although the BC Mile winner was 9-2, the 2015 superfecta paid over $21,000.
Fillies have beaten the boys 16 times in Breeders’ Cup history but they have done it 9 times in this race.
Bettors need to scour the workout patterns of these runners in the final weeks before the big day.
