It’s batten down the hatches when the Navy Midshipmen head to Colorado Springs, Colorado to face the Air Force Falcons on Saturday, October 1st. The 49th battle is set to be fought at 3:30 p.m. ET and will be televised on the CBS Sports Network. Air Force is currently a -7.5 point favorite and the over/under is penciled in at 49.
Both the Midshipmen and the Falcons have started the 2016 season with a bang. Unfortunately, only one academy can come away from Saturday’s match-up still undefeated.
The two schools have squared off 48 times in the past, dating back to 1960. The Fighting Falcons have flew away 28 times with a victory. The last time these two teams met on the gridiron, Navy came away victorious. The Midshipmen capitalized on four Air Force turnovers on their way to 33-11 triumph.
Navy Midshipmen (3-0):
Navy has found away to get the job done when it counted in their last two games. Despite the Midshipmen’s quarterback Tago Smith going down to a season ending knee injury, Navy has found away to win their last two contests. Both hard fought affairs against Connecticut and Tulane were decided in the waning moments.
Quarterback Will Worth has stepped in admirably for the academy. His numbers haven’t been anything to write home to mom about, but he is keeping the Midshipmen afloat. Two games in, Worth has carried the pigskin 54 times for 177 yards and four trips to the end zone.
Surprisingly, the senior back-up gives the Midshipmen a little production from the pocket as well. Will worth has thrown 23 passes and connected on 14 of them for over 260 yards and a score.
A plethora of running backs share the load out of the backfield for Navy. They are led by their fullback Chris High. The 6’0, 225 pound mortar-of-a-man has rumbled for 263 yards on just 26 carries with four scores. Two other backs have totaled over 200 yards and two scores. The lowest average yard per carry for a Navy running back is an impressive 9.2.
When Will Worth stands and delivers, he does so to wide out Jamir Tillman. Tillman has nabbed nine balls out of the air for almost 150 yards. He was used effectively last year and has to be accounted for in play-action scenarios.
Navy’s needs to shore up their ground defense if they have hopes of coming out of Falcon Stadium victorious. The front seven have struggled a bit and are giving way to almost 165 yards a contest. That number places the Midshipmen in the 75th spot in the national rankings. On the bright side, they are only giving in to 18 points a contest, which is 25th in the country.
Air Force Falcons (3-0):
The Falcon’s offense and defense are flying in sync. Air Force’s defense came up huge last week in their 27-20 win over the Utah State Aggies. Senior Haji Dunn Jr. recovered a fumble deep in Aggie territory that led to a 24-13 lead. It would be all that Air Force needed to seal the victory.
Air Force’s running attack is flying high once again. Currently, they are ranked 2nd in the country in rushing at 359 yards a game. They were number one before they left Utah last week. The Falcons are averaging just over 37 points a game.
Nate Romine is the head man in charge under center. The senior has completed a paltry 13 passes but they have gone for 364 yards and three scores. Nevertheless, that’s not what he is asked to do in this ground-it-out offense. With his feet, Romine has ran the rock 43 times for over 150 yards.
The Falcon’s backfield is full of productive tail backs. Five different players have over 130 yards on the season. As a unit, they have amassed just under 1,100 yards rushing and added nine touchdowns.
When called upon, wide receiver Jalen Robinette and has been the go-to guy. He has six catches for 122 yards and a score. Four other Falcon receivers have caught passes and all of them are averaging over 20 yards a catch.
Air Force’s defense has been stout against the run in 2016. They are conceding under 60 yards a game and are ranked 2nd in the country. Against lesser competition they have allowed 18.7 points a game and only 314 yards a contest.
Trends and Notes:
The Midshipmen are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 vs. MWC Conference.
The Over is 7-2 in Midshipmen last 9 games overall.
The Over is 9-3 in Falcons last 12 games overall.
The Falcons are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 home games.
The Underdog is 12-5 ATS in their last 17 meetings.
Game Prediction:
Both teams are entering this contest undefeated. Only one of these two teams has their original starting quarterback under center. Navy has seemed to struggle to put away teams that aren’t very impressive. Air Force has made quick work of their weak opposition.
Air Force’s running attack is clicking on all cylinders and Navy is still in the process of fine tuning theirs. The Midshipmen seem to be clutch in the fourth quarter this year. If the game is close, the Falcons could be in trouble.
Both teams practice against a run-heavy line up, so the over/under at 49 could be risky. With a sturdy run-stop defense and a better ground attack, take the Falcons before it gets to that point. Nab Air Force first half -4, on their way to the Commander and Chief trophy.
