The ACC serves up a in-conference match up on Saturday, October 1st at Doak Campbell Stadium. The contest between the North Carolina Tar Heels and the Florida State Seminoles starts at 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN. The Seminoles are -11 point favorites and the over/under is posted at 69.
These two teams last met in 2010. Tar Heels quarterback T.J. Yates went off, throwing for over 400 yards in a 37-35 victory over the Seminoles. The defeat was head coach Jimbo Fisher’s first at home after taking over for Florida State legend, Bobby Bowden.
#23 North Carolina Tar Heels (3-1):
North Carolina enters the game on the heels of a thrilling victory over the Pittsburgh Panthers. In that high-scoring affair, Tar Heels gunslinger Mitch Trubisky went 35 for46 for over 450 yards and five end zone tosses. The last of his touchdown passes came with just two seconds left, to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.
Mitch Trubisky is off to a phenomenal start to his junior year. So far, the rifleman has connected on 103 passes for an astounding 1,306 yards and 10 touchdowns. Even more impressive is that he has yet to throw a interception. Furthermore, Trubisky has three scores running the football in 2016.
When the Tar Heels look to get the ground game moving they turn to Elijah Hood. Hood has responded with 290 plus yards and four trips to pay-dirt. T.J. Logan provides a nice two to the one two punch. Logan has pitched in another 181 yards and four touchdowns.
Mr. Trubisky has no problem spreading the ball around to a talented group of wide receivers. Four of them have double digit receptions while three others have at least seven or more.
This stable of thoroughbreds are led by senior Ryan Switzer. Switzer has 33 catches for over 420 yards and two scores. The multi-talented athlete also is the All-Time ACC punt returner. He holds the record for most punt return yards and touchdowns.
North Carolina better figure out how to shore up its 118th ranked defense when they stare across the line of scrimmage against Delvin Cook. The front seven has been an absolute sieve, giving way to over 240 yards a game. The secondary has done their part, holding teams to only 185 yards through the air.
#12 Florida State Seminoles (3-1):
The Seminoles come into the contest off of a 55-35 beat-down of the South Florida Bulls. In that game, running back Delvin Cook was unstoppable. The human highlight reel scampered for a career-high 267 yards and two trips to the promise land. At 3-1, it appears that the Noles’ are back on track after the debacle in Louisville a few weeks back.
Freshman quarterback Deondre Francois has settled in a bit since he first took control against Ole Miss. He has tallied over 950 yards on 76 completions with seven touchdown tosses and only two picks. Francois will also need to be at his best to keep North Carolina from loading the line of scrimmage to stop Delvin Francois.
Florida State running back Delvin Cook proved that he is back last Saturday. After having his way with the South Florida defense, he will look to repeat his performance against a suspect Tar Heel front. On the year, Cook has 78 carries for almost 500 yards and four touchdowns.
Travis Rudolph and Jesus Wilson are starting to build up an impressive resume’. Together, the two have 16 catches a piece for over 450 yards and another four scores. Throw in Delvin Cook’s 13 grabs for 180 yards and teams have to be wary of the Seminole air attack as well.
Defensively, the Seminoles have struggled in 2016. There’s a lot of talent there, but putting it all together has been a problem early on. They rank 108th in the nation in points against (35), and 86th in the country in total yards.
Trends and Notes:
The Tar Heels are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games in October.
The Over is 6-1 in Tar Heels last 7 games overall.
The Over is 5-1 in Seminoles last 6 home games.
The Seminoles are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.
Game Prediction:
Florida State’s Delvin Cook is licking his chops to go up against a weak Tar Heels defensive front. Deondre Francois can just hand the ball off and move the chains with his improving receiving core. As long as the Noles’ keep the North Carolina defense honest, they should score plenty of points.
The Tar Heels look to expose the Seminoles defense that still hasn’t found its bearings. Mitch Trubisky has had success moving the rock through the air and Saturday should be no different. Special teams should help North Carolina with good field position and the running game should have enough pop to keep the Tar Heels in manageable situations.
In a shoot out, the -11 that Las Vegas has given Florida State could go either way. Why worry? Both teams should find their fair share of end zone appearances. If the Tar Heels fall behind a few scores, the Nole’s running game could heat up even more. Whether it is a close game, or North Carolina gets fourth quarter points via a prevent defense, the over 69 should be good to go.
Take the over/under 69.
