The Texas Longhorns and the Oklahoma Sooners will once again settle their differences in the 111th Red River Rivalry at the Cotton Bowl. The contest gets underway at High Noon ET on Saturday, October 8th and will be televised on Fox Sports 1. Oklahoma comes into the contest as a -11.5 favorite and the over/under is at 73.
Last year, the Oklahoma Sooners were substantial favorites, but it was the Longhorns who came away with a 24-17 victory. It was the Sooners only set-back in 2015 before they lost out to Clemson in the playoffs.
The Longhorns may have bought coach Charlie Strong some time after the victory, but it appears he is right back on the hot-seat. Finally, the defensive-minded coach took control of that side of the ball.
Texas (2-2):
Both teams feature high-octane offenses, but how they choose to move the chains is quite different. The Longorns like to run the ball first, but when they do throw freshman quarterback Shane Buechele is their go to guy. So far, Buechele has completed almost 80 passes for just under 1,000 yards with eight touchdown tosses and three picks.
Texas loves to pound the rock and they have two running backs and a back-up quarterback that do that quite well. D’Onta Foreman and Chris Warren III have combined for over 120 carries for just over 800 yards and eight scores.
In the red zone, Tyrone Swoops lines up under center and becomes another threat. Using his size and his feet, Swoops has 27 carries for over 100 yards and five more trips to pay-dirt.
Five receivers all catch about the same amount of passes form quarterback Shane Buechele. As a whole, they have reeled in just under 70 balls for over 900 yards and have shared six end zone passes.
Texas’s defense has struggled to create any turnovers in 2016. As of now, they have only one to brag about. Furthermore, the secondary is a sieve, allowing almost 800 yards through the air and seven scores over the last two weeks. Charlie Strong did take over the defense this week so that should help a bit.
#22 Oklahoma (2-2):
The Sooners were as good as dead after getting their lunch handed to them by Houston and the Big-10 juggernaut Ohio State. Nevertheless, they did rebound by picking up a win against the TCU Hornfrogs in a shoot-out 52-46.
Baker Mayfield will be back on the grid iron for Saturday’s battle with the Longhorns. The multi-talented quarterback has to be licking his chops looking down the 104th ranked Longhorn secondary (275.8 ypg). In 2016, Mayfield has passed the ball for just under 80 completions. As a result, he has over 1,000 yards with nine touchdowns and just two interceptions.
Joe Mixon and Samaja Perine have been sharing the duties out of the backfield. Perine has been banged up all year so his stats are not up to par. The two studs have gained almost 600 yards on almost 100 carries and six scores.
Dede Westbrook leads a duo at the receiver position posting 24 catches for just over 300 yards and two touchdowns. Mark Andrews has pitched in another 11 catches for four scores. Oklahoma likes to use running back Joe Mixon to bolster up an average receiving corps.
The Oklahoma secondary can’t brag about their performance this year either. The back half has given up 13 touchdowns and only stole one pass in their three games against Houston, Ohio State and TCU. They are better than average against the run ranking 39th in the country, giving way to 130 yards a game.
Trends and Notes:
Longhorns are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games.
Sooners are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 conference games.
Over is 6-2 in Longhorns last 8 games overall.
Over is 9-3 in Sooners last 12 games overall.
Longhorns are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
Game Prediction:
This very well could be Texas coach Charlie Strong’s coup de grace. The heat is on and it has him taking the reins of the Longhorn’s porous defense. Fortunately for Texas, the Sooner defense has not been anything to write home to mom about either.
The Sooners do have the advantage of fielding a veteran quarterback, who will look to shred the under-achieving Longhorn defense. The Longhorns will look to do what they do best and pound the rock for four quarters.
The over under is at a whopping 73 and in a rivalry game that was 24-17 last year, that could be risky. That being said, all the numbers point to a shoot-out. The games is going to be played at the Cotton Bowl so there will be plenty of fans on both sides of the field. The bottom line here at GMS is that there’s nothing wrong with thinking dog, so dog it is. Take Texas -11 and hope they can keep up the ground attack for four quarters.
