The SMU Mustangs gallop into Chapman Stadium to take on the Tulsa Golden Hurricanes on Friday, October 7th at 8:00 p.m. ET on ESPN2. Tulsa is a sizable -17 point favorite and the total is notched in at 65.5. Last year, Tulsa took advantage of two key Mustang’s turnovers in a 40-31 shoot-out win in Texas.
SMU (2-3):
The Mustangs comes into this match-up on the heel of a two game skid at the hands of the TCU Hornfrogs and the Temple Owls. Unfortunately, neither of those to contest were even close as the Mustangs fell 33-3 and 45-20.
The losses got out of hand in large part because SMU’s freshman quarterback Ben Hicks keeps making horrible decisions with the football. As a result, the signal-caller has only four touchdowns and a gaudy nine interceptions on the season. He has accumulated over 1,000 yards through the air on 80 completions.
Two Mustang running backs shoulder the load for the ground offensive. Braeden West and Ke’Mon Freemon have ran with the rock for a combined 647 yards on a 133 carries. The one-two punch, have two scores to show for their work.
Wide receiver Courtland Sutton is averaging 22.36 yards per catch in 2016. The shifty receiver will create some mismatches for the SMU offense against the Golden Hurricane’s secondary. Altogether, he has 22 catches for almost 500 yards and four touchdown grabs.
Things are looking up for the Mustangs on the defensive side of the ball. In fact, they are tied for first in the nation with 12 interceptions. Throw in defensive end Justin Lawler’s 4.5 sacks and the Mustangs can cause some problems for Tulsa. Overall, the defense needs to create turnovers because the Mustangs are 101st in the nation against the pass.
Tulsa (3-1):
Take out the pounding that Tulsa received at Ohio State, and the Golden Hurricane has fared well in 2016. Nevertheless, senior quarterback Dane Evans has to be better if Tulsa wants to continue it’s winning streak. So far, Evans has completed only 68 passes that have went for a little over 800 yards and eight touchdowns with six picks.
For a pass happy team, Tulsa has been forced to run the ball just as much. Running back D’Angelo Brewer has been solid, rushing for 524 yards and three touchdowns so far this season. James Flanders has pitched in another 258 yards on 49 carries and three more trips to the end zone.
When Dane Evans is completing passes, he likes to target three athletic wide outs. Together, they have 61 catches for over 850 yards and eight touchdowns. Keevan Lucas leads this group with a 17.6 average and five scores.
The Tulsa defense is right smack dab in the middle of the country in all five defensive stats. They should be able to take advantage of a struggling quarterback and create some turnovers. Tulsa won this game last year because of them.
Trends and Notes:
The Mustangs are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 conference games.
The Golden Hurricane are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 home games.
The Under is 5-1 in the Mustangs last 6 games overall.
The Over is 17-5 in the Golden Hurricane last 22 home games.
Game Prediction:
Even though there will be a lot of eye candy for sports viewers on Friday night, this game might be worth a peak in. Two of the countries best wide receivers will be looking to carry their teams to a victory. The question is, will their quarterbacks complete the ball to them or the opposing corner backs.
Turnovers can flip the field in favor of a high scoring game or against one just as easy. Tulsa is the better club with the senior man under center. The Golden Hurricane should win this game at home but the 17 points might be a bit much.
In both of SMU’s losses to TCU and Baylor, both of which are high scoring teams, not one of those scores breached the total Vegas has set for this game. Then again, this is Tulsa’s defense and that’s good enough for us over here at GMS, we recommend the over
