With the NHL season right around the corner, there have been thousands of fantasy hockey drafts that have taken place over the past couple of weeks with which we can get a pretty good idea of where players are being selected using their average draft position. ADP can be used as an important tool when your draft rolls around as it can help predict which players are being overvalued and which players are being undervalued. Here is a look at the top five players being overvalued in NHL fantasy drafts.
C: Jack Eichel, Buffalo Sabres
ADP: 41.8
The second-overall pick from the 2015 NHL Draft had a solid rookie season with 24 goals and 56 points in 81 games and his potential gives him solid upside for his sophomore season. However, it’s important to remember that he is still just 19-years-old and there is no guarantee that he makes a significant leap in terms of point production. Eichel’s ADP right now is 41.8, which means people are taking him ahead of players like Joe Thornton, Nathan Mackinnon, Ryan Getzlaf and Jason Spezza. That is likely too high for a second-year player whose production potential is capped by his situation in Buffalo and the fact that the center position is absolutely loaded this season.
C: Jonathan Toews, Chicago Blackhawks
ADP: 58.1
Toews is widely regarded as one of the top two-way centers in the world but the biggest mistake fantasy hockey GM’s make is equating his success in the real world with his fantasy potential. Toews had 181 points in 186 games from 2010-11 through 2012-13 but he hasn’t produced at the same level since and should not be considered an elite fantasy center. Toews had just 28 goals and 58 points in 80 games last season and while he could top the 60-point mark in 2016-17 it’s unreasonable to expect him to top the 70-point mark. Toews could still be a quality second or third center but there is no reason for him to be drafted in the top-60 in fantasy hockey leagues.
G: Brian Elliott, Calgary Flames
ADP: 71.8
There are plenty of different philosophies out there concerning where goaltenders should be selected in fantasy hockey drafts but the one consensus is that Elliott is going too high right now. Elliott has posted a solid 2.01 goals against average over the last five seasons but he moves from St. Louis to Calgary where he will have a much more difficult time putting up elite numbers and he has yet to prove he can be a workhorse No. 1 goaltender for a playoff team. Elliott will have a much bigger workload with the Flames this season and the change of scenario should lead to him being downgraded a little more this his ADP on your draft board.
W: Patrick Sharp, Dallas Stars
ADP: 79.0
Sharp’s production bounced back in his first season with the Stars as he sored 20 goals and recorded 55 points in 76 games. However, he is no longer an elite point producer and he will turn 35 in December. Sharp also has a history of injuries and that makes him an even bigger concern heading in to the 2016-17 season. If everything goes absolutely right, he’ll repeat what he did last year but there is more room to the downside than there is to the upside. Keep that in mind.
He can still be a decent fantasy asset playing on a high-scoring team in Dallas but don’t reach for him among the top-80 selections in your draft.
D: Justin Faulk, Carolina Hurricanes
ADP: 82.7
The best of the best at the position certainly deserve a high pick but Faulk isn’t an elite fantasy defensemen and right now he is going too high in fantasy hockey drafts. Faulk would have surpassed the 40-point mark had he stayed healthy last season but he still had a minus-22 rating and his potential is capped by a lack of talent around him and the potential for him to get injured. Faulk can still be a quality third defensemen on your roster if you think he can stay healthy but right now he is being overvalued in fantasy hockey drafts.
