Breeders’ Cup trends must be known because there is nothing worse than making a bet and then discovering later that the bet was nearly doomed. Sure, things don’t always happen in bunches but the saying about history repeating itself is not unfounded.
Put these Breeders’ Cup trends in your toolbox for the Cup on November 4th and 5th at Santa Anita.
Because the Juvenile Turf involves babies that are growing before our eyes, the payoffs have been super in this event. The average $2-win payoff has been nearly $17 and those that take a swing in the superfecta have a shot to have a nice windfall. The average superfecta has paid over nine grand. Looking to this year, know that five straight Juvenile Turf winners had raced in Europe at least once. Frankie Dettori, who has won 11 Breeders’ Cup races overall, has three wins in this race as does jockey Ryan Moore.
The Juvenile Fillies Turf has also been a bit unpredictable. The $1 trifecta has averaged over $900 and the superfecta has averaged over ten grand. Seven of eight winners of this race finished first or second in their final Breeders’ Cup prep.
Breeders’ Cup trends in the Dirt Mile include the $2 average win payoff of over $23 and that the superfecta has averaged nearly $9,200.
Breeders’ Cup trends do not always translate to big bucks though. Know that the favorites have won the Distaff 44% of the time. This year there are three solid contenders that are hard to separate. Beholder, Stellar Wind and Songbird will line up for glory and any of them could be victorious. Sophomores, like Songbird, have done well in the Distaff as 3-year-olds have been in the exacta in six straight years.
Although the winning average price in the Juvenile Fillies is just over $20, there have been some extreme surprises in this race. Take Charge Brandi executed the third largest upset in Breeders’ Cup history when she won the Juvenile Fillies at 61-1. The largest price ever, of course, was the $269.20 returned when Arcangues won the Classic in 2003.
Those that have followed Breeders’ Cup trends over the years have been successful if they stayed away from horses that prepped in California for the Filly and Mare Turf. Those racers are zero for thirty-seven in this race in history.
The Breeders’ Cup Sprint is always a blur and tough to analyze. Eastern runners were highly-regarded in a couple of the Sprints in the late 1980s but when they got a taste of California speed, they swallowed their tongues. The winning favorite has hit at 25% in the Sprint, well below the national average. And those players that could identity bombs in the superfecta have gotten paid. The average superfecta in the Sprint has paid over seventeen grand. They say speed kills and it does a bit in the Sprint. The last Sprint winner to have the lead after the first call was Big Drama in 2010. The racer to do that before him happened in 1998.
When looking at the Juvenile this year, bettors should concentrate on horses that are based in California. Those types have finished in the exacta in all eight Juveniles run at Santa Anita and six won.
Showing up to a party fashionably late can be eye-catching and Breeders’ Cup trends surrounding the Turf support that style. In the last 21 years, only 6 winners of the Turf have not been right off the plane from Europe. Seven of the last eight Turf winners were either European shippers or imports from Europe. Leaving out a foreign-bred runner in the Turf trifecta has been disastrous in the last 17 renewals of the event. The last time that trend was broken came in 1998 when U.S.-bred runners ran one/two/three in the Turf.
Youth has not been served in the Filly and Mare Sprint. Eight straight winners of this race have been at least four-years-old and no sophomore has ever won this race. Pay attention this year to the runners that will be exiting the Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes at Keeneland. Five of the last nine winners of the Filly and Mare Sprint came out of that race. The Breeders’ Cup trends this year using that equation points to the Thoroughbred Club of America winner Irish Jasper and Spelling Again.
The real money according to Breeders’ Cup trends will be up for grabs in the Classic. The average Classic $1 superfecta, picking the first 5 finishers, has averaged over $42,000.
Let’s get lucky.
