Week Nine of the NFL season features a revenge game for the Atlanta Falcons (5-3) as they travel southeast to take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-4) on Thursday Night Football. The NFL Network is all alone on the call this week and you’ll have to endure that without me. In a disappointing program note the local High School Football playoffs require my undivided attention tonight, so this will be the first and hopefully only TNF live blog I’ll be skipping for the season. You’ll have to find a way to enjoy the game without my in depth analysis and occasional jokes. I believe in you.
The Game: Atlanta at Tampa Bay (+3.5)
The History
While the rivalry between the two teams stretches back to 1977, there haven’t been a lot of head-to-head match ups. The legitimate history began when the NFL realigned in 2002 and put the Bucs and Falcons in the same division.
The Falcons currently lead the series 24-22 but Tampa Bay has won the last three contests including a 31-24 victory in Week One of this season.
The longest streak in the series belongs to the Bucs. Tampa Bay won six consecutive games from Nov. 1997 to Sept. 2003, encompassing the Tony Dungy and Jon Gruden regimes in Tampa. The irony of that streak is the best Falcons team, the 1998 Super Bowl squad, didn’t play the Buccaneers at all.
Atlanta won five straight games from Dec. 2008 to Dec. 2010, beginning with a 13-10 victory in overtime and spanning Matt Ryan’s first three seasons as an NFL quarterback.
The Falcons on Offense
Atlanta is fielding the most prolific offensive unit in football right now and quarterback Matt Ryan is the early frontrunner (that’s played a full slate of games) in the NFL MVP race. Wideout Julio Jones is on pace for a 1,700 yard, 86 reception, eight touchdown season and Mohamed Sanu has been the perfect compliment weapon on the other side of the field. Jacob Tamme is out, but rookie Austin Hooper has played very well in his stead and should pick up the slack in the red zone. And while Tevin Coleman remains inactive, the Falcons still have Devante Freeman in the backfield and all he did was run for 1,000 yards and make the Pro Bowl last year.
The Buccaneers on Offense
Tampa Bay has its own big-time downfield connection with quarterback Jameis Winston and wide receiver Mike Evans. Evans is on pace for his third consecutive 1,000-plus yard season and second double-digit touchdown campaign. Early fears of a sophomore slump for Winston have been unfounded. His completion percentage continues to improve and he’s on pace to throw for 3,500 yards and 28 touchdowns. Where the Bucs are hurting is at running back. Doug Martin has been out for weeks with hamstring issues and his back up, former Falcon Jaquizz Rodgers, will also miss the game with a foot injury. That means the primary running back tonight will probably be Peyton Barber, a rookie out of Auburn who probably hasn’t pass protected since high school.
The Falcons on Defense
The Falcons are one of the worst defenses in the league in giving up yardage, but one thing they can do is get after the quarterback. Atlanta is the No. 6 ranked team in the NFL in sacks with second-year outside linebacker Vic Beasley Jr. contributing 5.5 QB takedowns in eight games. It’s ironic then that the weakness of the defense is up front on the D-line. It’s a unit that’s been pushed around a lot this season, including by this same Bucs team in Week One.
The Buccaneers on Defense
Tampa’s defense is actually the better unit. The Bucs are ranked No. 17 in the league in total defense and No. 17 in QB sacks. Gerald McCoy gets most of the press at defensive tackle, but the best player on the field is outside linebacker Lavonte David, a consistent tackling machine who is putting up Pro Bowl again in his fifth year in the league. The Buccaneers are solid on the back end with Brent Grimes, Bradley McDougald, Chris Conte and rookie Vernon Hargreaves III teaming up for nice mix of youth and veterans.
The Coaches
Tampa Bay head coach Dirk Koetter is a regular fixture on my Coach Ineptitude List every Friday. Falcons coach Dan Quinn has never made an appearance, but maybe his gut should after that overtime call two weeks ago. Advantage Falcons.
The Pick
The 3.5 points seems pretty fair to me. This one will be closer than the team’s records make it look. I’ll take Atlanta, but not the points. Falcons 31, Bucs 28
Last Week
Straight up: 11-1-1
Against the spread: 9-4
Season
Straight up: 66-52-2
Against the spread: 57-62
