The North Carolina Tar Heels Travel the road to face the Duke Blue Devils in an ACC showdown at Wallace Wade Stadium. The contest is set to begin on Thursday, November 10th at 7:30 p.m. ET and will broadcast on the ESPN network. As of Tuesday, the Tar Heels are -10.5 point favorites and the over/under now rests at 59.
In last year’s game at Chapel Hill, North Carolina’s Marquise Williams threw for over 400 by half-time and seven different Tar Heels scored touchdowns as the home defended their turf by the score of 66-31.
North Carolina (7-2):
Last week, the Tar Heels amassed over 600 yards with 283 of them coming via the ground. North Carolina recorded the last 21 points of the contest and went on to defeat the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 48-20.
For the second straight week, the Tar Heels got their running game going. Before that, it was quarterback Mitch Trubisky that has been carrying the load. North Carolina’s man-under center has been outstanding this season. The gunslinger has tossed for over 2,700 yards with 19 touchdowns and only two interceptions.
Running back Elijah Hood is coming alive at the right time of the year. The gritty tail back had his second consecutive 100-yard game, rushing for 168 yards and three touchdowns last week. Altogether, he has accumulated almost 650 yards and eight scores.
Wide receivers Ryan Switzer and Bug Howard are the recipients of most of the passes from Mitch Trubisky. Combined, they have gathered in 112 balls for almost 1,400 yards and eight scores. Four other Tar Heel wide outs have scored at least double-digit touchdowns.
North Carolina’s defense has not been as stingy as coordinator Gene Chizik would prefer, but they are holding teams under what their offense is producing. The secondary is definitely the strength of this unit, allowing just 192.9 yards a game, which is good enough for 21st in the country.
Duke (3-6):
After losing a close game to Georgia Tech after their bye week, the Blue Devils lost another ACC contest to remain win-less in conference play. It looks like David Cutcliffe’s squad’s setbacks have finally taken their toll. The Blue Devils lost starting quarterback Thomas Sirk right before the season started and then lost their starting tail back when he ruptured his Achilles.
When Thomas Sirk went down, freshman Daniel Jones took over as the Blue Devil’s signal-caller. The greenhorn has done okay in 2016. Jones has thrown for over 2,000 yards with 11 touchdowns and nine picks. More importantly, the youngster can use his feet to advance the rock. Jones also has 375 yards rushing and another five scores on the ground.
Like Daniel Jones, Shaun Wilson filled in for the Blue Devils starting running back Jela Duncan. Wilson has rumbled for 449 yards on 111 carries and three scores. Obviously, Duncan’s 450 yards and a team-high six touchdowns are dearly missed.
Duke’s quarterback spreads the ball around when he decides to push the ball downfield in the passing game. Four receivers have over 20 catches and another four more have had at least 10 or more. T.J. Rahming leads this unit with 42 catches and 409 yards.
Defensively, the Blue Devils have improved their unit from the 2015 season. Duke ranks 48th in the country allowing 219 passing yards a contest. They also rank 39th in the nation, succumbing to 23.9 points a game.
Trends and Notes:
The Tar Heels are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games.
The Blue Devils are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
The Under is 4-1 in the Tar Heels last 5 games overall.
The Under is 4-1 in the Blue Devils last 5 games overall.
The Home team is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
Game Prediction:
North Carolina has found balance to add to Mitch Trubisky’s offensive onslaught. That in itself could spell bad news for ACC teams down the line. The Tar Heels will once again look to get Elijah Hood going early, to set up big plays between Trubisky and Ryan Switzer.
Duke has been behind the eight ball since the word go in 2016, but have refused to throw in the towel. This scrappy group keeps competing for four quarters in every game that they play. In fact, the Blue Devils haven’t loss to to any team by more than 11 points. Louisville, Virginia Tech and Northwestern are some of the competition they hung with for 60 full minutes of football.
Yes, North Carolina has the better offense and has a decisive special teams advantage in-state rivalry. Yes, they have proven over the last few weeks that they can beat teams through the air and over the ground.
Even so, the Blue Devils have faced plenty of squads that can also do both, and still gave them all they can handle. Home dogs are scary if your picking against them, but that shouldn’t be the case on Thursday. The Blue Devils keep on grinding and lose another close one at home. Think dog here, and take Duke +10.5, and jump all over the half point.
