The Aztecs of San Diego State head to Wyoming in a battle of two of the best teams in the Mountain West Conference. The contest begins at 3:30 p.m. ET and can be seen on the CBS Sports Network. The visiting Aztecs are -10 point favorites and the over/under for this games is at 59.5.
The Aztecs have won six in a row and are undefeated in conference play. Their only defeat was a mystery, somehow losing in their fourth game to South Alabama. The Cowboys have been riding-high themselves until last week’s loss, it came at the hands of UNLV in a 69-66 three overtime classic. Unfortunately, it put an end to their five game winning streak.
San Diego State (9-1):
Last Saturday, San Diego State got off to a 26-7 halftime lead over Nevada and coasted from there. Quarterback Christian Chapman threw for two scores and limited any costly mistakes. On the season, Chapman has thrown for almost 1,400 yards with 15 touchdowns and only four picks.
Also against the Wolf Pack, running backs Rashaad Penny and Donnel Pumphrey ran for 208 and 198 yards respectively. That is why the Aztecs are the 5th ranked running team in the country. In fact, Pumphrey may be the best back in college football, rushing for nearly 1,800 yards and 14 trips to pay-dirt. By the way, his partner in crime Rashaad Penny is no slouch either. Penny has 784 yards on only 101 carries (7.8 ypc) and nine more scores.
When Christian Chapman gets the green light to throw the ball down the field, he looks for his favorite target Mikah Holder. Holder leads the Aztecs with 21 catches for 421 yards and four touchdown grabs. Tight end David Wells contributes in the red zone, catching another three scores from Chapman.
If you think you can run the ball on the Aztec’s front seven, think again. San Diego State is outstanding stopping opposing tailbacks, ranking second in the nation allowing only 86 yards a game. They also are pretty good keeping teams off the scoreboard, giving way to just 15.2 points a match.
Wyoming (7-3):
Against UNLV, quarterback Josh Allen struggled with his accuracy, completing just 14 of 31 for 334 yards with four touchdowns and two picks. He must cut-out the turnovers if the Cowboys want a chance to upset the Aztecs. For the 2016 season, Allen has completed 57.2 percent of his passes for over 2,200 yards with 21 scores and 10 picks.
With all the talk going Donnel Pumphrey’s way, some seem to forget about the “other” running back in the Mountain West. Tail back extraordinaire Brian Hill, is quietly having himself an amazing season. So far this year, Hill has racked-up 1,417 yards on 250 carries and has 16 trips to the back of the end zone.
Wyoming will throw the football around, and when they do Tanner Gentry is their go-to receiver. The gritty wide out has reeled in 53 balls for just under 1,000 yards and a unit-high 11 scores. Tight end Jacob Hollister gets in the mix as well. The senior from Bend, Oregon has 24 grabs for over 400 yards and six more touchdowns.
Defensively, Wyoming has struggled from the start of the season until now. Their secondary is giving up 297.9 yards a game, which is 122nd in the nation. They also are allowing 462 total yards a contest, which is good for the 108th ranking in the nation. The Cowboys better improve on their 165 yards rushing allowed on Saturday or it’s over before it even started against the Aztecs.
Trends and Notes:
The Aztecs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
The Cowboys are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 conference games.
The Over is 4-1 in the Aztecs last 5 road games.
The Over is 5-1 in the Cowboys last 6 games overall.
The Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Game Prediction:
The Aztecs enter this Mountain West showdown looking for their 10th win of the season. They bring with them one of the best running backs in the country, complimented by one of the nation’s best defenses.
Wyoming has had a pretty good year, and for that they will be playing some post-season football. The Cowboys also have a darn good tail back in Mr. Hill, and can throw the ball around a little better than San Diego State.
The one major disparity that makes all the difference, is the San Diego State Aztecs bring a top notch defense to the field every weekend. They are especially tough against the run and that’s what the Cowboys do best. Wyoming’s defense is porous at best. For that reason alone, take San Diego State to cover the -6 at halftime.
Also, Wyoming should find some ways to get some points up on the board at home, the Aztecs don’t shut down teams as well on the road. The over 59.5 is probably a safe bet to lay some of your hard earned money on.
