The Alabama Crimson Tide, Michigan Wolverines, Ohio State Buckeyes, and Clemson Tigers make up the top four teams in the race for the CFP right now, before the next weekend of games. Among the teams not in the top four, which have the best chance of getting in? Here are the best answers, with the acknowledgment that specific details matter.
Washington Huskies
The Huskies might not have the best chance if you realize that two top defensive players, Azeem Victor and Joe Mathis, are done for the season with injuries. However, this team still packs a lot of offensive firepower with quarterback Jake Browning throwing the ball long to receiver John Ross or handing the ball off to dynamic tailback Myles Gaskin. The thing which makes Washington the team with the best CFP odds among teams not in the top four is that it has the clearest and simplest path. Washington very likely won’t need help, or at the very least, Washington probably needs less help than the other teams on this list. If Washington wins its next two games, it wins the Pac-12 North. If Washington wins the Pac-12 North, it will play a quality opponent in the Pac-12 Championship Game. A win there will make Washington 12-1 and the champion of a power conference. Given that at least one conference (quite possibly the Big Ten) figures to have a two-loss champion, and since Louisville bombed out of the race with a lopsided loss to Houston on Thursday night, it will be hard to deny Washington a CFP spot at 12-1. The hard part is winning the games, but if Washington wins them, it will get to the CFP, barring something remarkable.
Wisconsin Badgers
The playoff has never had a two-loss team before, but if any team figures to break that streak, it is Wisconsin, and if any conference is likely to break that streak, it is the Big Ten. A lot of people feel that Ohio State will get in even if it doesn’t win its division. Ohio State would therefore be a wild card team. That scenario, though, depends on a few things, and one of them is that Washington loses, which would knock the Pac-12 out of the playoff. Oklahoma beating West Virginia – thereby ensuring that the Big 12 champion has at least two losses – would also help Wisconsin and the Big Ten.
Wisconsin, should Oklahoma win the Big 12 and should Washington not win the Pac-12, would have a very strong resume. Its only losses were to Michigan and Ohio State, and they were close losses. The Badgers beat an LSU team which could make the Sugar Bowl. They beat nationally ranked Nebraska and won on the road at Iowa against a team which defeated Michigan. If Ohio State beats Michigan later in the season, Penn State (provided it wins its remaining games) will win the Big Ten East Division. Wisconsin is in line to win the West, and Wisconsin would be favored to beat Penn State. The Badgers have better odds than many currently realize.
Oklahoma-West Virginia Winner
When Oklahoma lost to Ohio State in September, suffering its second defeat of the season, it was hard to imagine the Big 12 champion getting into the CFP, and it was especially hard to see how Oklahoma had any chance at all. West Virginia winning this game and finishing 11-1 is the Big 12’s best bet for a playoff. The Mountaineers could cause Washington to sweat if the Huskies finish 12-1. West Virginia’s only loss came against a good Oklahoma State team on the road. Other contenders either lost twice or lost at home (Washington is an example of the latter). The winner of this game will remain in the hunt through the end of the regular season. It will probably need help, though.
Penn State Nittany Lions
This situation is similar to Wisconsin, and it depends on Ohio State beating Michigan (which is probable, since the game is at Ohio State). Penn State is simply the team which would face Wisconsin in a possible Big Ten Championship Game if OSU takes care of Michigan. Penn State would not be favored, which is why Wisconsin has the better odds on this list. Nevertheless, if Penn State did pull off the upset, it would have a great chance to get in. It beat Ohio State and would then add a win over a highly-ranked Wisconsin group. A loss to Michigan isn’t bad, and after Pitt defeated Clemson, the loss to the Panthers doesn’t look nearly as flawed for PSU as it once did.
