Overthinking in horseracing doesn’t work for the most part and that is not to say one can glide through the handicapping process. The balance is achieved by doing the due diligence of examining all the facts and then making a logical decision.
One of my former employers used to tell me that ‘every time I think, I cost the company money’ and he kind of meant it and betting enthusiasts may be able to embrace this knowledge.
The boss knew that I was one of the best workers on the job but when I tried to make something difficult when an easy task was at hand, things went awry.
It happens in basketball all the time. A guard will get the ball on the start of a fast break and instead of going to the middle and making the defenders commit, he’ll try to improvise and showboat. He’ll throw the career pass when on a three to one break and the ball will either go out of bounds or will go off the hands of the guy trying to dunk.
When I was setting the line early in my career for the Daily Racing Form, I would sometimes just try to kind of do the same thing and come up with the ‘wise guy’ play.
Being young, I tried to express how smart I was by going against the grain and searching for winners but over the years was schooled. The learning taught me to just make the easy pass, get the lay up and go back down the court to the next defensive possession. Or, in my case, the next race.
Finally, this was ingrained in my thought process about handicapping with an attitude of playing good defense. The offense started to come, things started to get easier, more productive and eventually successful.
This can go a long way in picking winners. It’s not always about seeing through the smoke and the mirrors of form but it’s about not overthinking in horseracing. Looking at what is directly in front of a handicapper is a trait that many handicappers have to utilize.
One of the more prominent examples of overthinking in horseracing occurred for the bettors that tried to make a race out of the Breeders’ Cup Classic at Santa Anita this year. The race was clearly a match-race with California Chrome and Arrogate. California Chrome went off at 4-5, but Arrogate wore him down and paid $5.40. California Chrome was nearly 11 lengths clear of his nearest rival.
Those that played this cold exacta both ways with either horse on top, got a return of 3-2. And that is not bad considering these are the best horses arguably in the world.
Take it another step and if one keyed those 2 runners in the superfecta, the return was almost $300.
A more recent example how overthinking in horseracing can go awry happened on November 27 at Del Mar. A short field lined up for the Grade 3 Native Diver Stakes and only two horses were coming out of a Grade 1 affair. Point Piper had just run sixth at 48-1 in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile. Midnight Storm had just run third beaten less than two lengths in the Breeders’ Cup Mile.
Midnight Storm was the lone speed, was long gone and paid a respectable $5.20.
To avoid overthinking in horseracing one must just open the eyes and pay attention.
Remember, overthinking in horseracing revolves around weather too. A player does not have to bet every single race. When the skies are cloudy or the track is wet or the turf course yielding, that can be just another way to lose a race. Stick to situations where the unknowns are fewer and far between.
Lastly, don’t get tempted into playing a horse because he gets a favorable weight break. These animals are 1,000 or 1,200 pounds, so a few ounces will not be the end all as far as winning.
Common sense can go a long way in this great sport and overthinking in horseracing is not the way to go.
