The Miami Dolphins have rebounded from a brutal 1-4 start with six straight wins to improve to 7-4. With the Denver Broncos losing to the Kansas City Chiefs last week, the Dolphins have now moved into playoff position.
Now they are set to clash with a Baltimore Ravens side that is also on a hot streak. The Ravens have won three of their last four games and are the division leader in the AFC North. This is a game that could have major playoff implications.
Moneyline: Baltimore -165
Handicap/Spread Odds: BAL -3.5
Total O/U: 41
Last 5 Meetings: (Road/Home – Spread/Total)
| 12/06/15 | BAL 13 – MIA 15 | BAL 3.5 | U 43 |
| 12/07/14 | BAL 28 – MIA 13 | BAL 3 | U 45 |
| 10/06/13 | BAL 26 – MIA 23 | BAL 2.5 | O 42.5 |
| 11/07/10 | MIA 10 – BAL 26 | BAL -5 | U 40.5 |
| 01/04/09 | BAL 27 – MIA 9 | BAL -3.5 | U 38 |
On The Dolphins Side of the Ball (7-4 Record, 6-5 ATS)
Miami managed to survive a scare from the San Francisco 49ers with a 31-24 win despite managing just 95 rushing yards against the league’s worst run defense. Ryan Tannehill stepped up big time with 285 passing yards and three touchdowns in what many experts are saying was one of the best games of his career. That helped Miami extend its longest win streak since 2005 to six games in a row.
The Dolphins will need both their run and pass offense to be operating at a high level when they clash with a Baltimore offense that has held its last five opponents to 17 points or fewer. The Ravens enter the game leading the league in total defense. The Dolphins have found success of late due to their running game, but can they win on the road if Jay Ajayi and company aren’t able to provide that offensive balance? The Miami defense will also need to step up after a sloppy second half against San Francisco last weekend.
Last 5 Results:
| 11/27/16 | SF | W 31-24 | L -7.5 | O 44.5 |
| 11/20/16 | @ LA | W 14-10 | W 1 | U 39 |
| 11/13/16 | @ SD | W 31-24 | W 4 | O 48.5 |
| 11/06/13 | NYJ | W 27-23 | W -3.5 | O 45 |
| 10/23/16 | BUF | W 28-25 | W 2.5 | O 46 |
On The Ravens Side of the Ball (6-5 Record, 5-6 ATS)
The Ravens secured their third win in four games with a 19-14 victory over the Cincinnati Bengals and they now control their own destiny atop the AFC North. However, the path to the playoffs won’t be easy with three of their final four on the road – including games at New England, Pittsburgh and Cincinnati to close out the season. That makes this game that much more important with Baltimore looking to improve to 5-2 on the season at home. The Ravens defense ranks No. 1 against the run and No. 6 against the pass but they won’t be able to win this game without some help. Baltimore needs to be able to rely on Joe Flacco and company in another important game this week and if the offense can hold its own, then they should be in an excellent position to get the win at home. They also have issues running the ball, so we could see a low-scoring affair here with both defenses forcing two so-so passing games to function.
Last 5 Results:
| 11/27/16 | CIN | W 19-14 | W -3.5 | U 41.5 |
| 11/20/16 | @ DAL | L 17-27 | L 7 | U 44.5 |
| 11/10/16 | CLE | L 28-7 | W -7.5 | U 44 |
| 11/06/16 | PIT | W 21-14 | W 3.5 | U 46 |
| 10/23/16 | @ NYJ | L 16-24 | L 2.5 | P 40 |
Quick Analysis
Baltimore has won and covered in three of its last four games and it should be no surprise that each of their last four games have stayed under the total. The Ravens continue to lean heavily on their defense and that will be the case again versus a Miami team that has actually been involved in some high scoring games of late. The Dolphins have won six in a row but the teams they have beaten during their streak have a combined record of 25-41.
Prediction
Miami’s longest win streak since 2005 is bound to come to an end eventually, so it won’t surprise anybody if they finally stumble this weekend. Baltimore isn’t the best division leader you’ll find – they’re only 6-5 – but they’re 4-2 at home, they have the league’s best defense and they’re a much tougher opponent than what the Dolphins have faced of late. Remember that five of Miami’s last seven games were at home; they are just 2-3 on the road this year.
That said, they are getting 3.5 points on the spread right now and that’s a pretty decent number against a Baltimore side that isn’t exactly explosive on offense. The Dolphins might not win this game but they should be able to at least keep this game close and cover the number.
Pick: Miami +3.5
Note: Lines subject to change leading up to kick-off, so please be aware of the possibility of line movements.
