The Denver Broncos are coming off a 30-27 overtime loss to the Kansas City Chiefs that left them on the outside of the AFC playoff picture heading in to Week 13. Now they will have to get back on track against a feeble Jacksonville Jaguars opponent. The Broncos can’t afford to take this team lightly, though, as three of their next four games on the road.
Moneyline: DEN -200
Handicap/Spread Odds: DEN -4
Total O/U: 40
Last 5 Meetings:
| 10/13/13 | JAC 19 – DEN 35 | JAC 26.5 | O 53 |
| 09/12/10 | DEN 17 – JAC 24 | JAC -3 | O 40 |
| 10/12/08 | JAC 24 – DEN 17 | JAC 3.5 | U 48.5 |
| 09/23/07 | JAC 23 – DEN 14 | JAC 3.5 | O 36 |
| 10/02/05 | DEN 20 – JAC 7 | DEN 4 | U 36 |
On the Broncos Side of the Ball: (7-4 Record, 7-4 ATS)
If there was a silver lining in the Broncos loss to Kansas City, it was the strong performance that Trevor Siemian delivered under center. Siemian completed 20-of-34 pass attempts for 368 yards and three touchdowns and he didn’t commit a turnover in the loss. Denver did give up five sacks so there will be a focus on improved offensive line play and potentially getting the ball out of Siemian’s hands sooner this week.
Meanwhile, the Broncos will also attempt to establish the run against a Jaguars’ defense that ranks 24th in the NFL against the rush. The Denver defense needs to be better this week after giving up 30 points against the Chiefs, even if they did sack Alex Smith six times. The Broncos have done an excellent job getting to opposing quarterbacks this season but consistency will be the key this week as they look to punish Blake Bortles and keep the Jacksonville offense from finding its rhythm.
Last 5 Results:
| 11/27/16 | KC | L 27-30 | L -3.5 | O 40 |
| 11/13/16 | @ NO | W 25-23 | W 3 | O 50 |
| 11/06/16 | @ OAK | L 20-30 | L 1 | O 44.5 |
| 10/30/16 | SD | W 27-18 | W – 3.5 | O 43 |
| 10/24/16 | HOU | W 27-9 | W -8.5 | U 40 |
On the Jaguars Side of the Ball: (2-9 Record, 5-6 ATS)
Rex Ryan might have been right when he said that Jacksonville is the best 2-8 team he has ever seen but the Buffalo Bills found a way to get the job done in a 28-21 win that sent the Jaguars to 2-9 last week. Their record will likely get worse before it gets better.
Bortles didn’t throw an interception against Buffalo but he had 12 picks over his previous nine games and he can be mistake-prone at times. The Broncos defense ranks eighth in the NFL in interceptions and fifth in sacks so Bortles will be in tough this weekend. Meanwhile, Bortles’ mistakes have contributed to the Jacksonville defense ranking 26th in scoring defense despite doing a relatively good job overall. The Jaguars are giving up an average of 26.6 points per game and if they allow the Denver offense to hit that mark they will have a tough time covering as home underdogs in this one.
Last 5 Results: (Road/Home – Spread/Total)
| 11/27/16 | @ BUF | L 21-28 | W 8.5 | O 43.5 |
| 11/20/16 | @ DET | L 19-26 | L 5.5 | U 47 |
| 11/13/16 | HOU | L 21-24 | L -3 | O 42 |
| 11/06/16 | @ KC | L 14-19 | W 7 | U 42.5 |
| 10/27/16 | @ TEN | L 22-36 | L 3 | O 43.5 |
Quick Analysis
Jacksonville has covered in three of its last five home games but will have a difficult time hanging within four against a Broncos’ team that is looking to bounce back at the beginning of a tough stretch. Denver has covered five of its last six games against non-divisional opponents and they should be able to continue that trend if they can force Bortles to pay for his mistakes in this matchup.
Prediction:
The Broncos offense showed signs of life in their loss to Kansas City and if they can carry over the momentum from that game, they should be able to put up some decent numbers against the Jaguars’ defense. Meanwhile, Bortles has proven time and again that he will turn the ball over against elite defenses, so the Denver defense should be able to make some big plays to help set up Siemian in the offense in some favorable positions in this one.
The Broncos are on the road in this spot but Jacksonville just doesn’t win very often. They’ve lost six straight games and their offense has labored in that time. They haven’t scored more than 22 points in any of those contests while averaging 18.8 overall. Their prospects don’t look good against one of the league’s best defenses.
Jacksonville could hang around for a while but ultimately the Broncos will win and cover on the road.
Pick: Denver -4
Note: Lines subject to change leading up to kick-off, so please be aware of the possibility of line movements.
