The Penn State Nittany Lions and the Wisconsin Badgers square-off in the BIG-10 Championship game at Lucas Oil field in Indianapolis. The game is scheduled to start on Saturday, December 3rd at 8 p.m. ET and will be televised on the FOX Network. Vegas insiders have the Badgers as a slight -2.5 point favorite and the contest’s total is notched in at 47.5 points.
It seems pretty clear to me, that the College Football Playoff committee will give the Buckeyes a shot at the national championship despite not even winning the East division. That team would be the Nittany Lions, who dealt Ohio State their only loss to win the tiebreaker, and earn a chance to win the Big Ten Championship.
#7 Penn State (10-2):
It’s hard to wrap your brain around the fact that Penn State was just 2-2 at one point and lost by 39 to the Wolverines. Since then, Penn State has won eight in a row and reached the Big Ten Championship Game. Last week, the Nittany Lions crushed Michigan State, 45-12. Penn State scored 35-unanswered points after trailing by two points at halftime.
Quarterback Trace McSorley threw four touchdown tosses against Michigan State, but running back Saquon Barkley was held in check. Somehow, he ran for only 14 yards on just 12 carries before leaving the game with an injury in the second half. Head coach James Franklin is expecting Barkley to play against the Badgers.
Trace McSorley handled the loss of his tail back admirably, and has carried himself throughout the 2016 campaign in the same fashion. Coming into this title game, McSorley has completed 184 passes for just under 3,000 yards with 21 touchdowns and only five picks.
Penn State likes to play a run heavy brand of football, that’s why they look the Saquon Barkley to churn out yardage and move the chains. Barkley has responded all year by rushing for 1,219 yards on 228 carries with 15 trips to the promised land. Quarterback Trace McSorely also has pitched in with his feet, rushing for 372 yards and six scores.
Four Nittany Lion receivers keep the passing game afloat for coach James Franklin. Together, the corps has caught 152 passes for just over 2,100 yards and 14 touchdowns. Wide out Chris Godwin leads this group with 762 yards and nine trips to the back of the end zone.
The Nittany Lions defense has been better than average throughout the 2016 season. Currently, the Nittany Lions are ranked 29th in the country against the pass, giving in to only 200.5 yards a contest. They also are ranked 20th in the country in total points allowed (346.8 ypg).
#6 Wisconsin (10-2):
The Badgers two losses came by a combined 14 points against the Buckeyes and the Wolverines. A victory over the Nittany Lions would give the Badgers a strong argument to be included in the Playoff.
Coach Paul Chryst stayed with his two-quarterback system, as Alex Hornibrook and Bart Houston combined to go 13 for 22. Neither has stood out as the outright starter but both have been asked to contribute for the Badgers in 2016. Together, the two signal-callers have combined for over 2,150 yards with 13 touchdowns and 10 picks.
Obviously, the Badgers prefer to keep the ball as much as possible. They look to the running game to provide that advantage. Running back Corey Clement is the Badgers go-to-guy racking up 1,140 yards on 271 carries with 13 touchdowns to show for his efforts.
Three wide receivers have pitched-in for the Badgers for their passing attack. Combined, they have caught 110 balls for almost 1,400 yards with seven trips to the back of the end zone.
Wisconsin ranks third in the country in rush defense, giving up just over 100 yards per game on the ground. They also are seventh in the country giving way to only 292 yards a game. What really stands out about this unit is they only yield 13.7 points a contest which is the third best in the FBS.
Trends and Notes:
The Nittany Lions are 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
The Badgers are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
The Over is 4-1 in the Nittany Lions last 5 conference games.
The Over is 7-3-1 in the Badgers last 11 neutral site games.
The Favorite is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 meetings.
Game Prediction:
Well it may not be the two best teams in the BIG-10 that are playing in the conference title game, but then again it just might be. Both schools have played Michigan and Ohio State tough. Now, they get a chance to play one another for an outside shot at the College Football Playoffs.
Penn State comes into this match-up as the better offensive team. They have shown they can not only run the football but pass it down the field as well. The Badgers are one dimensional but have a top five national defense to bring to the table.
When these aspects collide on Saturday, the lack of offense for the Badgers may cause some problems in the red zone. I also think that the Penn State offense may find points at a premium against a stout Wisconsin front.
Taking all these things into consideration, this game has the makings of a good ole’ fashioned slobber-knocker. Vegas has the over/under set at 47.5. That’s just to much for a wounded Nittany Lion back field and a unproductive Wisconsin offense. Play it safe in this BIG-10 title game and take the under 47.5. Wisconsin finds a way to win and ends all the discussion of who should go to the final four.
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