The Army Cadets march into M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, Maryland to do battle with the Navy Midshipmen. The rivalry between the two academies will go down on Saturday, December 10th at 3 p.m. ET and will be televised on the ABC Network. As of now, the Midshipmen are -6 point favorites and the over/under is penciled in at 47.
The Naval Academy has dominated this match-up as of late, claiming victory 14 straight times over the Black Knights. Army has come close at times, including a 21-17 loss last season. Unfortunately, the Black Knights haven’t found a way to win since 2001.
From the beginning march into the event’s stadium, to the two service academies singing their respective Alma maters, not many events in college football match the pageantry and prestige of the Army-Navy rivalry game.
#25 Navy (9-3)
Navy was down to their third-string quarterback after the injury to Will Worth in the loss to the Owls on Saturday. Zach Abey took over the spot when Navy was down and was forced to throw the ball. That was a problem, with Abey throwing for only seven completions on 13 attempts with two picks.
Coach Ken Niumatalolo Midshipmen will look to keep it on the ground with back-up Zach Abey and tail backs Chris High and Shawn White. This year, the two running backs have carried the rock just under 150 times for over 900 yards and have 12 trips to the back of the end zone.
When throwing the ball out of play-action, Navy will look to wide out Jamir Tillman to gash the Black Knights. In 2016, the seldom used weapon has caught 35 passes for 582 yards and two scores. Slot-back Darryl Bonner, will pitch-in his 10 grabs for 200 yards and two more scores as well.
Most of the time, Navy is under-sized whenever the defense takes to the grid-iron, but that wont be the case on Saturday. Even so, the Midshipmen have allowed their fair share of points this season. The Midshipmen rank 82nd in the nation, giving way to 30.4 points a contest.
Army (6-5):
Army will keep the ball on the ground, because when they throw the ball the offense becomes a disaster. Quarterback Ahmad Bradshaw has attempted just 84 passes this season, completing 36 of them for four scores and eight interceptions. Bradshaw’s productivity comes from his feet, running for 646 yards and six trips to pay-dirt.
Andy Davidson is the Black Knight’s featured running back. He leads the 2nd ranked rushing attack in the nation, with 818 yards and nine scores. Eight other ball carriers have found the back of the end zone for a team that averages 328.7 yards over the ground.
Like Navy, the passing game is usually used after the run game has taken it’s toll on opposing defenses. Out of the play-action pass, four different pass catchers have reeled in just under 40 balls for almost 700 yards and five touchdowns.
The Black Knights defense has been stingy to opposing schools all season long. They only allow 19.1 points per game this season. That number is good for the 14th best scoring defense in the nation. Army’s 16th ranked run defense (125.7 ypg), will be well prepared for the Midshipmen’s offense. Navy runs the same type of ground attack as what they face each day in practice.
Trends and Notes:
The Midshipmen are 17-8-1 ATS in their last 26 games overall.
The Black Knights are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. AAC.
The Over is 6-2 in the Midshipmen last 8 games overall.
The Under is 9-4 in the Black Knights last 13 games overall.
The Under is 10-1 in the last 11 meetings.
The Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Game Prediction:
On Saturday against the Temple Owls, everything that could go wrong, did go wrong for the Navy Midshipmen. Not only did they lose the AAC title game to the Owls 34-10, but also lost their starting signal-caller Will Worth. Prior to being injured, Worth set the school record with 2,595 yards of total offense this season. The Midshipmen also lost three slot-backs Darryl Bonner, Dishan Romine and Toneo Gulley to injuries.
On the other hand, the Black Knights wrapped up their last game against FCS opponent Morgan State on November 19th. Army dominated their lesser foe, racking up over 500 yards via the ground on their way to a decisive 60-3 victory. They will have had almost three weeks to rest before this rivalry game.
Now that the Midshipmen are under-manned, this game should be a lot more competitive. In fact, it’s surprising that the Midshipmen are still almost a touchdown favorite. The Black Knights play solid run-stop defense and that will be the key in this contest as Navy will be one-dimensional. Take Army to cover the six points and put your leftover money on the under 47.
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