The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are tied with the Atlanta Falcons for the best record in the NFC South with four games remaining on their regular season schedule. The Falcons hold the tiebreaker for the division crown, but Tampa Bay is still in control of its own playoff destiny via the NFC Wild Card heading in to this week’s showdown with the New Orleans Saints.
Interestingly enough, the Saints could have been just one game back with a chance to be playing for first place in this spot had they not laid an egg at home to Detroit last week. Instead, they’ve now lost three of four and now have to go on the road – where they typically struggle – and find a way to beat a team that’s won six of their last eight games.
Moneyline: Tampa Bay -150
Handicap/Spread Odds: Tampa Bay -2.5
Total O/U: 51.5
Last 5 Meetings: (Road/Home – Spread/Total)
| 12/13/15 | NO 24 – TB 17 | NO 6 | U 52 |
| 09/20/15 | TB 26 – NO 19 | TB 9.5 | U 47 |
| 12/28/14 | NO 23 – TB 20 | TB 6 | U 47 |
| 10/05/14 | TB 31 – NO 37 | TB 11 | O 475 |
| 12/29/13 | TB 17 – NO 42 | NO – 11 | O 47 |
On The Saints Side of the Ball (5-7 Record, 8-4 ATS)
New Orleans is coming off a 28-13 loss to the Detroit Lions in which its offense was kept off the field for most of the game. The Saints finished with only 23 minutes of possession time and while Drew Brees still threw for 326 yards he didn’t throw a single touchdown and was intercepted three times. Brees will have to cut out the mistakes in order for New Orleans to have any shot at beating Tampa Bay on the road this week. The Saints’ mediocre defense will be in tough to slow down Jameis Winston and company, so it will be on Brees and the offense to get the job done in a game that could quickly turn in to a shootout. However, the Saints typically struggle when away from home. They have averaged 26.0 points per game on the road but take into account that they scored 41 at San Francisco and 35 at San Diego. They averaged just 18.0 points per game in their other three road games.
Last 5 Results:
| 12/04/16 | DET | L 13-28 | L -6.5 | U 53 |
| 11/27/16 | LA | W 49-21 | W -8 | O 45 |
| 11/17/16 | @ CAR | L 20-23 | W 3.5 | U 52.5 |
| 11/13/16 | DEN | L 23-25 | L -3 | U 50 |
| 11/06/16 | @ SF | W 41-23 | W -5 | O 53 |
On The Buccaneers Side of the Ball (7-5 Record, 7-5 ATS)
The Buccaneers have surprised the NFC with a 7-5 start but they still have a lot of work to do if they are going to reach the playoffs including two of their final four games against New Orleans. Tampa Bay extended its win streak to four in a row with a 28-21 win over the San Diego Chargers last week and Winston’s confidence continues to grow with every positive start. Winston has averaged close to 300 yards passing per game over their last four wins with six touchdowns compared to three interceptions. Running backs Doug Martin and Jacquizz Rodgers are both dealing with injuries so it will be that much more important for Winston to perform at a high level on offense. The Tampa Bay defense ranks 13th against the pass this season but they will be in for one of their toughest challenges yet against Brees and company.
Last 5 Results:
| 12/04/16 | @ SD | W 28-21 | W 3.5 | P 49 |
| 11/27/16 | SEA | W 14-5 | W 5 | U 46 |
| 11/20/16 | @ KC | W 19-17 | W 7 | U 45 |
| 11/13/16 | CHI | W 36-10 | W 2.5 | O 45 |
| 11/03/16 | ATL | L 28-43 | L 4.5 | O 49 |
Quick Analysis
The Buccaneers have won and covered in each of their last four games including back-to-back victories at home to improve to 7-5 against the spread this season. Meanwhile, the Saints have done an excellent job hanging around with opponents on the road this season as they are 5-0-1 against the spread with a 3-3 record straight up in their six games away from New Orleans.
Prediction
For as impressive as the Bucs have been over the past month of action it is extremely difficult to sustain success in the NFL and they are about to face one of their toughest tests of the season against a division rival that needs a win to keep its slim playoff hopes alive. The Saints have done an excellent job on the road all season and after last week’s loss we expect a strong bounce back effort from Brees and company. New Orleans will want to turn this game in to a shootout in order to test Winston and if their offense heats up they will have another excellent opportunity to win and cover on the road in order to stay alive just outside of the NFC Wild Card picture.
Pick: New Orleans +2.5
Note: Lines subject to change leading up to kick-off, so please be aware of the possibility of line movements.
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