The Miami Dolphins find themselves on the outside of the AFC playoff picture looking in following an embarrassing loss to the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday that left them at 7-5. Meanwhile, the Arizona Cardinals are on the outside in the NFC playoff picture where they are 1.5 games back of a Wild Card spot at 5-6-1 but they have to be thankful they are still alive after a comeback win over the Washington Redskins that should give them some momentum heading in to this week. One of those teams will bounce back with a win when they meet on Sunday while the other will move one step closer to missing the postseason.
Moneyline: Miami -125
Handicap/Spread Odds: Miami -2.5
Total O/U: 43.5
Last 5 Meetings: (Road/Home – Spread/Total)
| 09/30/12 | MIA 21 – ARI 24 x | MIA 4 | O 38.5 |
| 09/14/08 | MIA 10 – ARI 31 | ARI -6.5 | O 40.5 |
| 2011-07-04 | ARI 24 – MIA 23 | ARI 3 | O 34.5 |
| 09/19/99 | ARI 16 – MIA 19 | ARI 9.5 | U 41 |
| 09/08/96 | MIA 38 – ARI 10 | MIA -6 | O 39 |
On The Cardinals Side of the Ball (5-6-1 Record, 4-8 ATS)
David Johnson put on an absolute show in last week’s 31-23 win over the Redskins as he ran for 84 yards and added 91 receiving yards with two touchdowns. The second score came on a 25-yard touchdown catch in the opening minute of the fourth quarter that made the difference in the win. Johnson has 15 touchdowns in total this season, which leaves him two away from the franchise record heading in to this week. Johnson will be eager to get going against a Miami defense that just gave up 496 total yards to the Ravens last week but he can’t do it alone. Arizona needs more from Carson Palmer and its passing attack in order to create a strong balance on offense. Meanwhile, the Cardinals’ defense hasn’t been as dominant as in past years but this unit is still extremely skilled and will need to step up against Miami this weekend.
Last 5 Results:
| 12/04/16 | WAS | W 31-23 | W -2.5 | O 48.5 |
| 11/27/16 | @ATL | L 19-38 | L 4 | O 49 |
| 11/20/16 | @MIN | L 24-30 | L 2 | O 39.5 |
| 11/13/16 | SF | W 23-20 | L -13.5 | U 46.5 |
| 10/30/16 | @CAR | L 20-30 | L 2.5 | O 45.5 |
On The Dolphins Side of the Ball (7-5 Record, 6-6 ATS)
The Dolphins confidence level had to take a hit after a six-game win streak was snapped in brutal fashion in a 38-6 drubbing at the hands of Baltimore. It was clearly Miami’s ugliest loss of the season as the offense couldn’t find its rhythm and the defense didn’t bother showing up. Ryan Tannehill had a season-high three interceptions and there is no doubt that he has to cut down on the mistakes in order for the Dolphins to have a chance in this game. Meanwhile, Miami needs more from Jay Ajayi and its run game in order to keep Arizona’s pass rush at bay. The Dolphins were going to lose a game eventually but considering the way they were beaten up in Baltimore it will be very interesting to see if they can bounce back and persevere with another tough test this week.
Last 5 Results:
| 12/04/16 | @BAL | L 6-38 | L 3.5 | O 41.5 |
| 11/27/16 | SF | W 31-24 | L -7.5 | O 44.5 |
| 11/20/16 | @LA | W 14-10 | W 1 | U 39 |
| 11/13/16 | @SD | W 31-24 | W 4 | O 48.5 |
| 11/06/16 | NYJ | W 27-23 | W -3.5 | O 45 |
Quick Analysis
Miami has won its last four games at home with a 3-0-1 record against the spread. Meanwhile, the Cardinals haven’t been very good on the road at all as they have dropped each of their last three games as the visiting team. Arizona’s loss at Minnesota a couple of weeks ago in particular still stings and the Cardinals are just 1-5 ATS overall in their last six games.
Prediction
All of the trends seem to point towards the Dolphins delivering a crucial win at home but Miami was exposed by Baltimore last week while the Cardinals earned a big win over Washington, so maybe it’s an indication things could be turning for both teams.
Arizona has struggled on east coast trips this season – particularly on games that start at 1:00 PM ET – but this might be different. The Dolphins struggled against the league’s No. 1 defense last week and now they have to face the No. 2 unit. Arizona certainly has the talent to go in to Miami and win, so considering their season is on the line in this game, we will side with the Cardinals delivering another big blow to the Dolphins and winning on the road.
Pick: Arizona +2.5
Note: Lines subject to change leading up to kick-off, so please be aware of the possibility of line movements.
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