The Denver Broncos are coming off a crucial 20-10 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars that pushed them to 8-4 and in to sole possession of an AFC Wild Card spot. Now the Broncos will try to move one step closer to clinching a playoff spot when they visit a Tennessee Titans team that is still in the hunt after exceeding expectations through the first 13 weeks of the regular season.
Moneyline: Tennessee -125
Handicap/Spread Odds: Tennessee -1.5
Total O/U: 43.5
Last 5 Meetings: (Road/Home – Spread/Total)
| 12/08/2013 | TEN 28 – DEN 51 | DEN -13 | O 49.5 |
| 09/25/11 | DEN 14 – TEN 17 | DEN 7 | U 42.5 |
| 10/03/2010 | DEN 26 – TEN 20 | DEN 6 | O 43.5 |
| 11/19/07 | TEN 20 – DEN 34 | DEN -1 | O 38 |
| 12/25/04 | DEN 37 – TEN 16 | DEN -4 | O 51 |
On The Broncos Side of the Ball (8-4 Record, 8-4 ATS)
The Broncos needed a strong bounce back performance following a 30-27 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs the week before. Denver is 7-1 against non-divisional opponents but a 1-3 mark against teams from the AFC West has kept them from reaching their maximum potential. Denver has an extremely touch schedule the rest of the way with the New England Patriots, Chiefs and Oakland Raiders on their schedule so this will essentially be a must-win game. Rookie quarterback Paxton Lynch has really underwhelmed including just 104 passing yards in last weeks; win but a strong performance from the defense that included a pick-six helped Denver pull out the win. The Broncos will need more from their offense in Tennessee this week and that could mean opening things up a little more with Lynch under center.
Last 5 Results:
| 12/04/16 | @JAC | W 20-10 | W -3.5 | U 38.5 |
| 11/27/16 | KC | L 27-30 x | L -3.5 | O 40 |
| 11/13/16 | @NO | W 25-23 | W 3 | U 50 |
| 11/06/16 | @OAK | L 20-30 | L 1 | O 44.5 |
| 10/30/16 | SD | W 27-19 | W -3.5 | O 43 |
On The Titans Side of the Ball (6-6 Record, 4-8 ATS)
The Titans have an extra week to prepare for this game following a late bye week and they will also consider this a must-win game at home as they enter Week 14 at 6-6. Tennessee will follow this contest with back-to-back road games at Kansas City and Jacksonville before wrapping up their season at home against the Houston Texans and they might need to run the table in order to get in to the playoffs. Marcus Mariota has really emerged as a quality starter in his second NFL season but he will be put to the test against one of the best pass defenses in the league. Meanwhile, the Titans will likely give running backs DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry a steady dose of touches in an effort to establish the run and take some of the pressure off of Mariota. The Broncos defense will be tough to beat and that will make it even more important for the Tennessee defense to step up on the other side of the football and keep Lynch and the Denver offense from doing any serious damage.
Last 5 Results:
| 11/27/16 | @CHI | W 27-21 | L -6.5 | O 41.5 |
| 11/20/16 | @IND | L 17-24 | L 3 | U 53.5 |
| 11/13/16 | GB | W 47-25 | W 3 | O 48.5 |
| 11/06/16 | @SD | L 35-43 | L 3.5 | O 47.5 |
| 10/27/16 | JAC | W 36-22 | W -3 | O 43.5 |
Quick Analysis
Despite some early stumbles the Titans are now 6-6 and they recaptured some momentum with a win at Chicago before their bye week. Tennessee is just 4-8 against the spread this season but this number is fairly low with the Titans essentially a pick’em at this point. Meanwhile, Denver has surprised with an 8-4 record both straight up and against the spread but this will be a tough test on the road as they look to maintain their handle on an AFC Wild Card spot.
Prediction
The Titans might actually still be a little underrated heading in to this week as they are just 1.5-point favorites in a must-win game despite being at home after a bye week. The Broncos haven’t exactly dominated opponents with Lynch under center and their lack of a consistent passing attack will be their biggest weakness again this week. Tennessee has enough weapons on both sides of the football to win the possession game and capitalize on any mistakes that Denver makes on offense. If the Titans bring their best ot the table following their bye week then they should be able to win and cover at home in a game with major playoff implications.
Pick: Tennessee -1.5
Note: Lines subject to change leading up to kick-off, so please be aware of the possibility of line movements.
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