The inner strip style dictates success at Aqueduct and for those that are trying to pad that Christmas bankroll, they have to get on board early and often.
Recently it has not mattered what the track surface has been as the inner strip style has been consistent throughout.
On December 7, the surface at Aqueduct was impacted by the rains and the track was labeled as a sealed muddy strip. Most of the winners had to maintain contact to reach the winner’s circle but as the track was off, it was a bit more kind to closers.
The winner of the first two races came from a bit off the pace but after those events, speed was basically king. In 4 of the next 6 races, the winners had to be close up to win.
On December 8, the inner strip style was a bit more defined. It was a cloudy day in New York but that just hurt the speed challenged. There were eight races carded and four of them were won by horses that took the lead and never looked back. The inner strip style also translated to runners that had positional speed as two of the winners came from just off pace. They were never more than three lengths away from the leader. A pair of closers won on December 8 but there were reasons. One came from about six lengths removed from the leader but the favorite in that race was troubled. The other closer that won on December 8 was a case of mistaken identity. The winner, the 77-1 shot Riff Raff, beat a false favorite in Saratoga Giro, who was a Finger Lakers shipper.
As the weekend approached, the were again eight races carded on Friday December 9. Five of them were won by horses that took the lead from the sound of the bell and the other three winners were never more than a length and a half away from the leader.
That set the stage for the Saturday card and some stakes action. Stalkers won the first two races but neither winner was more than two lengths removed from the leader. The third race was won by a horse that did something special. Core Portfolio went to the front, lost the lead briefly and then came back on to win. That doesn’t happen every day. The preferred inner strip style stood up most of the way the rest of the Saturday program. Only one winner came from more than five lengths back and that was a favorite. Those that tried to beat Paulassilverlining in the Garland of Roses Stakes Saturday were just up against it. The filly was forced 3 wide but drew off as she pleased as the prohibitive chalk.
On Sunday, the inner strip style for speed continued. The winner of the first race came from two lengths off the lead. Four winners took the bull by the horns at the break and lead all the way and the other three winners were fairly close up. Even the winner of the Bay Ridge Stakes, Isabelle, was only two and a half lengths off the leader before cruising home by over five lengths at a juicy 9-1.
Isabelle is probably not finished yet. She is an inner strip specialist, can win sprinting or routing and has earned nearly $400,000.
What this goes to show is that there is only one place to start when handicapping Aqueduct moving forward and that is to look for the runners that can make the lead. If a runner does not have clearing speed, then a projected possible winner must have at least enough zip to gain a decent position after the first half-mile. Clearly, this is the inner strip style that has worked and it is not likely to change soon.
As far as the human factor is concern, bettors have to jump on the barns that have already shown that they have pointed for this winter meeting. It’s been a logical logjam of the usual training suspects as Rudy Rodriguez, Linda Rice, Chad Brown and Steve Asmussen have won their share but gamblers can also look to some smaller barns that seem loaded for bear.
Michelle Nevin, who was a former assistant to prolific trainer Rick Dutrow Jr., has won with eight of her twenty-four starters so far and 54% have been in the money. James Jerkens, who learned at the foot of his Hall of Fame father Allen, has watched six of his fifteen starters get their picture taken. Raymond Handal has a small barn but four of his thirteen starters have succeeded at Aqueduct of late.
Bottom line: stick with speed and the trainers that are focused.
