The Kansas City Chiefs took control of the AFC West with a crucial 21-13 win over the Oakland Raiders on Thursday Night Football last week. Now they will look to solidify their position and push for the best record in the entire AFC when they host the Tennessee Titans on Sunday.
Moneyline: Kansas City -250
Handicap/Spread Odds: Chiefs -6.5
Total O/U: 43.5
Last 5 Meetings: (Road/Home – Spread/Total)
| 09/07/14 | TEN 26 – KC 10 | TEN 3 | U 45.5 |
| 10/06/13 | KC 26 – TEN 17 | KC -2.5 | O 38 |
| 12/26/10 | TEN 14 – KC 34 | KC -4 | O 42.5 |
| 10/19/08 | TEN 34 – KC 10 | TEN -9 | O 35 |
| 12/16/07 | TEN 26 – KC 17 | TEN -3.5 | O 34 |
On The Titans Side of the Ball (7-6 Record, 5-8 ATS)
Tennessee will be in a desperate position when they arrive in Kansas City this week as they need a win to remain in the hunt for an AFC South title. The Titans are coming off a 13-10 win over the Denver Broncos that allowed them to keep pace with the Houston Texans atop their division at 7-6 so a loss this week would be a severe blow to their division and playoff hopes. Marcus Mariota has one of the best QBR’s in the NFL since Week 5 but he struggled in last week’s win over Denver and it was the run game that took over. DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry combined for 134 rushing yards and a score while the defense bent but didn’t break despite allowing Trevor Siemian to throw for 334 yards and a touchdown. The Titans will need their defense to be even better against Kansas City this week and they definitely need more out of Mariota. The second-year quarterback has shown flashes of his elite potential throughout the season and if he can deliver a big performance then Tennessee will have a chance to pull out the upset on the road.
Last 5 Results:
| 12/11/16 | DEN | W 13-10 | W -2 | U 44 |
| 11/27/16 | @CHI | W 27-21 | L -6.5 | O 41.5 |
| 11/20/16 | @IND | L 17-24 | L 3 | U 53.5 |
| 11/13/16 | GB | W 47-25 | W 3 | O 48.5 |
| 11/06/16 | @SD | L 35-43 | L 3.5 | O 47.5 |
On The Chiefs Side of the Ball (10-3 Record, 7-6 ATS)
Kansas City improved to 10-3 with a complete effort in its 21-13 win over the Raiders on Thursday Night Football as they seemed that much more adaptable to the cold conditions in comparison with Oakland. Their defense as absolutely dominant as they held Derek Carr to 17-of-41 passing for just 117 yards and they have to be looking forward to the opportunity to flex their muscle against the Titans once again this week. However, they will be without star linebacker Derrick Johnson after he suffered a ruptured Achilles in last week’s win. Meanwhile, Alex Smith threw for 264 yards and a touchdown against Oakland and it was tight end Travis Kelce that thrived as his top target in the win. Kelce had five catches for 101 yards including a 34-yard deep ball and as long as he continues to stretch opposing defenses the Chiefs will be tough to stop. Kansas City will also likely give Spencer Ware a fair share of touches this week in an effort to keep the Tennessee defense off balance and limit the amount of pressure they send after Smith.
Last 5 Results:
| 12/08/16 | OAK | W 21-13 | W -3.5 | U 46 |
| 12/04/16 | @ATL | W 29-28 | W 5 | O 50 |
| 11/27/16 | @DEN | W 30-27 x | W 3.5 | O 40 |
| 11/20/16 | TB | L 17-19 | L -7 | U 45 |
| 11/13/16 | @CAR | W 20-17 | W 3 | U 44 |
Quick Analysis
Despite their overall success, the Chiefs are just 2-4 against the spread at home this season and 7-6 ATS overall after winning and covering in three straight. Meanwhile, the Titans enter this game having won three of their last four and they could be overdue to cover on the road having gone 0-3 ATS in their last three road games.
Prediction
Kansas City is now in control of its own destiny in the AFC West and while we don’t anticipate them giving it up when they host the Titans this week they will be pushed to the limit by a Tennessee side that is playing for its playoff lives this week. The Titans have done enough to deserve the nod as 6.5-point favorites and while they might not get the win they should be able to keep this one close until the very end.
Pick: Titans +6.5
Note: Lines subject to change leading up to kick-off, so please be aware of the possibility of line movements.
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