The Indianapolis Colts suffered a major blow in last week’s 22-17 loss to the Houston Texans that pushed them from a share of the division lead in the AFC South to outside of the playoff picture looking in altogether. It won’t get any easier for the Colts this week either as they visit a Minnesota Vikings team that enters this week just one game back of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for the final NFC Wild Card spot.
Moneyline: Minnesota -210
Handicap/Spread Odds: Vikings -4
Total O/U: 44.5
Last 5 Meetings: (Road/Home – Spread/Total)
| 09/16/12 | MIN 20 – IND 23 | IND 3 | U 45.5 |
| 09/14/08 | IND 18 – MIN 15 | IND -1 | U 43 |
| 11/08/04 | MIN 28 – IND 31 | MIN 7.5 | O 58 |
| 12/24/00 | MIN 10 – IND 31 | IND -6.5 | U 51.5 |
| 12/21/97 | IND 28 – MIN 39 | MIN -4.5 | O 42.5 |
On The Colts Side of the Ball (6-7 Record, 6-6-1 ATS)
The Colts failed to capitalize on several chances to take down Houston last week and they are now one game back of both the Texans and the Tennessee Titans in the AFC South. Andrew Luck completed just 24-of-45 pass attempts for 276 yards and two touchdowns with two interceptions and a sack. The turnovers crushed any hope that Indianapolis had to win the game despite a relatively strong effort from its defense. The Colts held Brock Osweiler to 14-of-24 passing for 147 yards and an interception with two sacks, but it was a wasted effort as turnovers really helped Houston put up 22 points. It will take a similar effort on defense combined with a much strong effort from Luck and the offense in order to have any shot at bouncing back in Minnesota this week.
Last 5 Results:
| 12/11/16 | HOU | L 17-22 | L -6.5 | U 47.5 |
| 12/05/16 | @NYJ | W 41-10 | W 1 | O 48.5 |
| 11/24/16 | PIT | L 7-28 | L 8 | U 50 |
| 11/20/16 | TEN | W 24-17 | W -3 | U 53.5 |
| 11/06/16 | @GB | W 31-26 | W 7.5 | O 52 |
On The Vikings Side of the Ball (7-6 Record, 8-5 ATS)
The Vikings are unlikely to close the gap on the Detroit Lions in the NFC North but they are still very much alive in the NFC Wild Card picture. The Minnesota defense absolutely smothered Blake Bortles and the Jaguars offense in last week’s win as they held Bortles to 23-of-37 passing for 257 yards and a touchdown with four sacks. The Vikings have held each of their last three opponents to 17 points or less but their lone win came against Jacksonville last week when their offense managed to score 25 points. Sam Bradford came through big time last week as he completed 24-of-34 pass attempts for 292 yards and a touchdown and he will need another efficient, mistake-free outing this week in order to beat the Colts. The Vikings haven’t gotten much out of Matt Asiata and Jerick McKinnon of late so they will need Bradford to continue to lead the way under center.
Last 5 Results:
| 12/11/16 | @JAC | W 25-16 | W -3 | O 38 |
| 12/01/16 | DAL | L 15-17 | W 3 | U 43.5 |
| 11/24/16 | @DET | L 13-16 | L 1.5 | U 42 |
| 11/20/16 | ARI | W 30-24 | W -2 | O 39.5 |
| 11/13/16 | @WAS | L 20-26 | L 2.5 | O 42 |
Quick Analysis
Minnesota is 2-2 straight up but 3-1 against the spread over its last four games and their 8-5 record ATS is actually one game better than their 7-6 record SU this season. Meanwhile, the Colts are an impressive 5-3-1 ATS over their last eight games and if that trend continues then they will keep this game close. The total has gone over in each of Indianapolis’ six road games this season but they could be in tough to score a lot of points against the Vikings defense this week.
Prediction
This amounts to a must-win game for both teams but it will be Minnesota that has the more likely road to the playoffs as well as the home advantage this week, so we are leaning towards the Vikings on the money line. They have the better defense here and while the Colts appear to have the better offense on paper, they’ve been lifeless many times this season. However, Indy getting four points on the spread and considering what is at stake as well as the success they have had on the road this season, we like Indianapolis to cover in what should be a field goal type of game that goes down to the wire in Week 15.
Pick: Colts +4
Note: Lines subject to change leading up to kick-off, so please be aware of the possibility of line movements.
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