The Miami Dolphins managed to steal a 26-23 win over the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday to remain in the playoff hunt in the AFC. Now they will head on the road without their starting quarterback for a showdown with the New York Jets in essentially a must-win game.
Moneyline: Miami -130
Handicap/Spread Odds: Dolphins -2.5
Total O/U: 38
Last 5 Meetings: (Road/Home – Spread/Total)
| 11/06/16 | NYJ 23 – MIA 27 | MIA -3.5 | O 45 |
| 11/29/15 | MIA 20 – NYJ 38 | NYJ -4.5 | O 44 |
| 04/15/10 | NYJ 27 – MIA 14 | NYJ -2.5 | U 42.5 |
| 12/28/14 | NYJ 37 – MIA 24 | NYJ 7 | O 41 |
| 01/14/12 | MIA 16 – NYJ 13 | NYJ 6.5 | U 41.5 |
On The Dolphins Side of the Ball (8-5 Record, 7-6 ATS)
Ryan Tannehill suffered a badly sprained ACL in the win over the Cardinals, leaving Matt Moore to finish the job the remainder of the way this season. Moore completed five passes for 47 yards against Arizona and while he isn’t a true starter by any means the Dolphins are hoping he can do just enough to help earn the win this weekend. Miami will likely give running back Jay Ajayi a steady dose of touches with the hope that their 13th-ranked rush offense can lead the way in New York. The Jets own one of toughest run defenses in the NFL so it won’t be easy. Meanwhile, the Dolphins defense will be asked to step up big time as they look to keep Bryce Petty and an anemic Jets offense in check.
Last 5 Results:
| 12/11/16 | ARI | W 26-23 | W 2 | O 44 |
| 12/04/16 | @BAL | L 6-38 | L 3.5 | O 41.5 |
| 11/27/16 | SF | W 31-24 | L -7.5 | O 44.5 |
| 11/20/16 | @LA | W 14-10 | W 1 | U 39 |
| 11/13/16 | @SD | W 31-24 | W 4 | O 48.5 |
On The Jets Side of the Ball (4-9 Record, 5-8 ATS)
The Jets improved to 4-9 on the season with a 23-17 overtime victory over the San Francisco 49ers last Sunday with Bilal Powell doing most of the heavy lifting on offense. Powell rushed for 145 yards and two touchdowns including the game-winning score while Petty threw for 257 yards and an interception. Petty was also sacked six times. Based on what we have seen from him this season, it looks as though New York will need to once again rely heavily on the run game if they are going to play spoiler this week. It is worth noting that the Jets showed life, though. There has been a bit of a changing of the guards on offense as veterans like Ryan Fitzpatrick, Matt Forte and Brandon Marshall have taken a back seat to Petty, Powell and Robby Anderson. This isn’t a team that has quit on the season.
The Jets defense has the talent to make this game interesting but it really depends on what type of effort they bring to the table. New York has nothing left to play for other than pride and we saw things get ugly in their Monday Night Football loss to the Indianapolis Colts a couple of weeks ago when they mailed it in.
Last 5 Results:
| 12/11/16 | @SF | W 23-17 x | W 3 | U 42.5 |
| 12/05/16 | IND | L 10-41 | L -1 | O 48.5 |
| 11/27/16 | NE | L 17-22 | W 8.5 | U 48 |
| 11/13/16 | LA | L 6-9 | L 1 | U 39 |
| 11/06/16 | @MIA | L 23-27 | L 3.5 | O 45 |
Quick Analysis
Miami is 6-4 straight up and 5-4-1 in its last 10 road games against New York and there will be some added urgency this week as they look to keep their playoff hopes alive with a win. The Dolphins have covered six of their last eight overall while the Jets are just 1-4 straight up and 2-3 against the spread over their last five games.
Prediction
While they managed to scrap out a win over the lowly 49ers last week, it’s hard to imagine the Jets putting together consecutive wins when they face a much tougher opponent this week in Miami. The Dolphins actually have something left to play for as they’re still very much in the playoff picture. Although they don’t have Tannehill in this spot, leaning on Jay Ajayi is all they really need to do here. The Jets just coughed up nearly 200 rushing yards to Carlos Hyde of the San Francisco 49ers last week. Moore doesn’t need to do much here aside from managing the game. Look for him to do just enough to earn a close win on the road and remain in the AFC Wild Card picture.
Pick: Miami -2.5
Note: Lines subject to change leading up to kick-off, so please be aware of the possibility of line movements.
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