The Houston Texans kept pace with the Tennessee Titans atop the AFC South with a crucial road win over the Indianapolis Colts. That snapped a three-game slide and got them back on track for the playoffs. Now the Texans will turn their attention to another division rival knowing that they are in control of their own playoff destiny heading in to a matchup with the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday. Although the Texans are still challenged on offense, this should set up for an easy game for them as long as they can run the ball and play defense. The Jags typically self destruct on their own.
Moneyline: Houston -260
Handicap/Spread Odds: Texans -6
Total O/U: 39
Last 5 Meetings: (Road/Home – Spread/Total)
| 11/13/16 | HOU 24 – JAC 21 | HOU 3 | O 42 |
| 01/03/16 | JAC 6 – HOU 30 | HOU -5.5 | U 45 |
| 10/18/15 | HOU 31 – JAC 20 | HOU 2.5 | O 43.5 |
| 12/28/14 | JAC 17 – HOU 23 | JAC 8.5 | O 38.5 |
| 12/07/14 | HOU 27 – JAC 13 | HOU -6.5 | U 42 |
On The Jaguars Side of the Ball (2-11 Record, 5-8 ATS)
Jacksonville dropped its eighth in a row with a 25-16 loss to the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday to fall to 2-11 on the season. It was Minnesota’s first road win since September and it was yet another example of how the Jaguars can’t seem to get over the hump and put a full four quarters of quality football together. Sam Bradford threw for 292 yards and a touchdown without an interception or a sack as he had no problem spreading the ball around on a Jacksonville defense that looked very limited. Meanwhile, Blake Bortles threw for 257 yards and a touchdown but was sacked four times and the offense was held to just 315 yards in the loss. Bortles has been extremely inconsistent throughout the season and suddenly there are question marks surrounding an offense that so many experts predicted would take another step in their overall development this season.
Last 5 Results:
| 12/11/16 | MIN | L 16-25 | L 3 | O 38 |
| 12/04/16 | DEN | L 10-20 | L 3.5 | U 38.5 |
| 11/27/16 | @BUF | L 21-28 | W 8.5 | O 43.5 |
| 11/20/16 | @DET | L 19-26 | L 5.5 | U 47 |
| 11/13/16 | HOU | L 21-24 | L -3 | O 42 |
On The Texans Side of the Ball (7-6 Record, 6-6-1 ATS)
The fact that the Texans went in to Indianapolis and snapped their losing skid in such a meaningful game is that much more impressive when you consider that Brock Osweiler wasn’t very good at all once again. Osweiler completed just 14-of-24 pass attempts for 147 yard with an interception and was sacked twice, but Houston rallied around Lamar Miller and Alfred Blue on offense while the defense came up with several big plays. Miller and Blue combined for 162 yards and a touchdown to lead the offense while the defense held Andrew Luck under 300 yards while forcing two interceptions and a forced fumble. Houston has been a better team at home this season but they still need more out of Osweiler if they are going to run the table and clinch an AFC South title. The Texans will continue to lean on their run game and defense this week with the hope that Osweiler can play mistake-free football and help them grind out a win in a very favorable matchup.
Last 5 Results:
| 12/11/16 | @IND | W 22-17 | W 6.5 | U 47.5 |
| 12/04/16 | @GB | L 13-21 | L 6.5 | U 44.5 |
| 11/27/16 | SD | L 13-21 | L 2.5 | U 45.5 |
| 11/20/16 | @OAK | L 20-27 | L 6.5 | O 45.5 |
| 11/13/16 | @JAC | W 24-21 | W 3 | O 42 |
Quick Analysis
Houston has an identical 3-3 record straight up and against the spread over its last three games and could keep that trend going if they beat the Jaguars as 5.5-point favorites at home. Jacksonville has dropped eight straight while posting a 2-6 record against the spread over that span but they were getting more than a touchdown in each of the two instances when they covered at +7 in a 19-14 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs and +8.5 in a 28-21 loss to the Buffalo Bills.
Prediction
The Jaguars have hung around in a number of games this season but ultimately haven’t gotten the job done and they are going off four straight losses by seven points or more heading in to this one. Houston should have a boost in confidence after a gutsy road win over the Colts last week and they should be able to cover as long as the line stays under a touchdown this week.
Pick: Houston -5.5
Note: Lines subject to change leading up to kick-off, so please be aware of the possibility of line movements.
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