The Green Bay Packers remained in the NFC playoff picture with a big win over the Seattle Seahawks last week at Lambeau Field. Green Bay is no longer in control of its own destiny but will look to remain focused on earning one win at a time while hoping to get a little help as they get set to visit the Chicago Bears this weekend. The good news for them is that they finish up their schedule with three matchups against their three rivals in the NFC North. Those are three teams they could easily beat and head to the playoffs with a head of steam.
Moneyline: Green Bay -290
Handicap/Spread Odds: Packers -6.5
Total O/U: 42.5
Last 5 Meetings: (Road/Home – Spread/Total)
| 10/20/16 | CHI 10 – GB 26 | GB -7.5 | U 46.5 |
| 11/26/15 | CHI 17 – GB 13 | CHI 7.5 | U 45 |
| 09/13/15 | GB 31 – CHI 23 | GB -6 | O 48.5 |
| 11/09/14 | CHI 14 – GB 55 | GB -9.5 | O 53 |
| 09/28/14 | GB 38 – CHI 17 | GB -2 | O 51 |
On The Packers Side of the Ball (7-6 Record, 7-5-1 ATS)
The Packers have won three in a row to climb back in to the NFC playoff picture as they are now just one game back of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for the final Wild Card spot. Green Bay has a fairly manageable schedule the rest of the way as they visit the Bears, host the Minnesota Vikings on Christmas Eve and then visit the Detroit Lions on New Year’s Day. The Packers will likely have to win out to have a chance but right now it’s about focusing on the Bears and picking up a big road win this week. Aaron Rodgers torched the Seattle secondary for 246 yards and three touchdowns last week while Ty Montgomery and Christine Michael combined for 77 yards and a touchdown to give the Green Bay offense a little balance with the run game. Meanwhile, the Packers defense played one of its best games of the season with three sacks and five interceptions on Russell Wilson so there will be no excuse against Matt Barkley and company this week.
Last 5 Results:
| 12/11/16 | SEA | W 38-10 | W 3 | O 47 |
| 12/04/16 | HOU | W 21-13 | W -6.5 | U 44.5 |
| 11/28/16 | @PHI | W 27-13 | W 4 | U 47 |
| 11/20/16 | @WAS | L 24-42 | L 3 | O 48 |
| 11/13/16 | @TEN | L 25-47 | L -3 | O 48.5 |
On The Bears Side of the Ball (3-10 Record, 6-7 ATS)
Chicago has dropped four of its last five games overall with the lone bright spot a 26-6 win over the San Francisco 49ers in awful winter conditions a couple of weeks ago. The Packers are much more likely to embrace the cold and snow if it hits the northeast this week though and the Bears will have a tough time containing their explosive offense. Chicago did a pretty decent job limiting Matt Stafford to 223 yards and a touchdown with two interceptions in last week’s 20-17 loss to the Detroit Lions so there is a chance they could frustrate Rodgers enough to keep this game close. At the same time, if the Seattle Seahawks had a tough time stopping the Packers, it’s unlikely that a beat up Bears team can hold back Green Bay.
On offense, Barkley threw for 212 yards and a touchdown against Detroit and he will need to play mistake-free football again this week for Chicago to hang around. He’s been far more capable than people thought. The Bears have moved the ball well with him under center and they’ve run it effectively. That’ll have to be the case if they’re to keep up with Green Bay this week.
Last 5 Results:
| 12/11/16 | @DET | L 17-20 | W 7.5 | U 42 |
| 12/04/16 | SF | W 26-6 | W PK | U 44 |
| 11/27/16 | TEN | L 21-27 | W 6.5 | O 41.5 |
| 11/20/16 | @NYG | L 16-22 | W 7 | U 41.5 |
| 11/13/16 | @TB | L 10-36 | L -2.5 | O 45 |
Quick Analysis
Green Bay won and covered for the third straight week last week and it hasn’t been all on their offense either as two of those three games stayed under the total. The potential winter conditions in Chicago could mean another low scoring game this week and it will be interesting to see if the Bears can hang around. Despite a 3-10 record straight up, Chicago is actually 6-7 against the spread this season and they have covered four in a row heading in to this matchup.
Prediction
The Bears should be able to hang around for a while but unless the point spread moves above the key number of 7 it will be hard to trust them given how good Rodgers and the Packers have looked of late. Green Bay is playing its best football of the season and will need another dominant performance on the road in order to remain in the playoff picture in the NFC this week. It could end up being another low scoring game if the conditions take their toll but the Packers should be able to cover at -6.5.
Pick: Green Bay -6.5
