The New England Patriots improved to 11-2 to move in to sole possession of top spot in the AFC with a 30-23 win over the Baltimore Ravens on Monday Night Football. The Patriots control their own destiny with three games left to go in the regular season heading in to another showdown with major playoff implications as they clash with the Denver Broncos this weekend.
Moneyline: New England -170
Handicap/Spread Odds: Patriots -3
Total O/U: 44
Last 5 Meetings: (Road/Home – Spread/Total)
| 01/24/16 | NE 18 – DEN 20 | DEN 3 | U 45 |
| 11/29/15 | NE 24 – DEN 30 | DEN 2.5 | O 43 |
| 11/02/14 | DEN 21 – NE 43 | NE 3 | O 52.5 |
| 01/19/14 | NE 16 – DEN 26 | DEN -5 | U 56.5 |
| 11/24/13 | DEN 31 – NE 34 | NE -1 | O 54 |
On The Patriots Side of the Ball (11-2 Record, 10-3 ATS)
Tom Brady dominated the Ravens defense with 406 passing yards and three touchdowns last week. Brady has completed 68.5-percent of his passes for 2,875 yards and 22 touchdowns compared to just two interceptions this season and there is no reason to think he will slow down as the Patriots look to move one step closer to locking up the best record in the AFC and home field advantage for the playoffs. Running back LeGarrette Blount should see a decent number of touches after rushing for 72 yards and a touchdown against Baltimore as his bruising running style should be the perfect fit in the cold conditions in Denver this week. New England’s win over the Ravens would have been even more lopsided had they not turned the ball over twice on special teams so look for Bill Belichick to get things cleaned up and make sure those mistakes don’t happen again this week. The Patriots defense has played at an extremely high level all season and they will be motivated to shut the door on the Broncos with Trevor Siemian under center this weekend.
Last 5 Results:
| 12/12/16 | BAL | W 30-23 | W -6 | O 45 |
| 12/04/16 | LA | W 26-10 | W -13 | U 44.5 |
| 11/27/16 | @NYJ | W 22-17 | L -8.5 | U 48 |
| 11/20/16 | @SF | W 30-17 | W -10.5 | U 51.5 |
| 11/13/16 | SEA | L 24-31 | L -7.5 | O 49.5 |
On The Broncos Side of the Ball (8-5 Record, 8-5 ATS)
Siemian completed 35-of-51 pass attempts for 334 yards and a touchdown in Denver’s 13-10 loss to the Tennessee Titans last week. The Broncos’ schedule won’t get any easier with New England, Kansas City and Oakland to close out the year so Siemian will be tested against some really excellent defenses. It would help if Denver could get some semblance of a running game going but that wasn’t the case last week when Justin Forsett and Devontae Booker combined for just 18 yards on nine carries. The Broncos’ defense kept Marcus Mariota to 6-of-20 passing and 88 yards but it wasn’t enough to get the win in Tennessee. Denver will have a much tougher time attempting to contain Brady and company this week so they will need their offense to produce in order to have any shot at even keeping this game close with their season on the line.
Last 5 Results:
| 12/11/16 | @TEN | L 10-13 | L 2 | U 44 |
| 12/04/16 | @JAC | W 20-10 | W -3.5 | U 38.5 |
| 11/27/16 | KC | L 27-30 | L -3.5 | O 40 |
| 11/13/16 | @NO | W 25-23 | W 3 | U 50 |
| 11/06/16 | @OAK | L 20-30 | L 1 | O 44.5 |
Quick Analysis
New England is 9-1 straight up and 8-2 against the spread over its last 10 games. The Under is now 4-1 over the Patriots last five road games. Meanwhile, the Under has hit in three of Denver’s last four games as they continue to lean on their defense. The Broncos are 2-3 overall and ATS over their last five games and they will face the difficult stretch of their schedule over the next three weeks with New England, Kansas City and Oakland to close out the regular season.
Prediction
The Patriots would have secured an even bigger win over Baltimore last week if they didn’t turn the ball over twice on special teams, which led to 14 points for the Ravens. New England will definitely want to clean things up this week and while Denver is fighting for a playoff spot the Patriots have their own goals in mind. Siemian will be put to the test against a tough New England defense and if he struggles then the Broncos will definitely be in tough to keep this game close. The Patriots should be able to win straight up and as long as the number doesn’t climb too high they should also be able to cover the spread on the road.
Pick: Patriots -3
Note: Lines subject to change leading up to kick-off, so please be aware of the possibility of line movements.
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