The Stanford Cardinals and the North Carolina Tar Heels will clash in El Paso, Texas for the 2016 version of the Sun Bowl. The contest is scheduled to start on Friday, December 30th at 2 p.m. ET and can be seen on the CBS Network. Coming into this match-up, the Cardinals are a -2 point favorite and the game’s total is penciled in at 54 points.
The programs have only met two times in their school’s history, and both programs have won once. The last time they played was in California in 1998, and the Cardinal won that contest, 37-34. The following season, the Tar Heels got their revenge and won in Chapel Hill, 28-17.
Stanford (9-3):
Well this certainly wasn’t the year most Stanford fans were hoping for. An inexperienced quarterback and a banged up Christian McCaffrey hurt Stanford for a while. But head coach David Shaw got it together and they finish the season on a high note with five straight.
The Cardinal started off catching balls from quarterback Ryan Burns, but since then Keller Chryst has taken over the starting job. Since then, Chryst has completed 59.8 percent of his passes for 774 yards in five games. He’s also thrown nine touchdowns to only one interception.
The Stanford back field boasts a true college stud. Tail back Christian McCaffrey was hobbled off and on, but he still had another phenomenal year. All totaled, he dashed for 1,603 yards on 253 carries and reached the end zone 13 times. Unfortunately, the Cardinal will be without their MVP as he has elected to sit out the Sun Bowl to focus on the NFL draft.
The Stanford passing attack left a lot to be desired in 2016. Wide receiver JJ Arcega-Whiteside led the squad with five touchdowns, and Trenton Irwin led the Cardinal with 36 receptions and 437 receiving yards. Really, senior Michael Rector is their best wide out, and he managed to only catch 31 passes and three scores.
Coming into the Sun Bowl, the Cardinal defense is a little banged up. However, they still enter the game ranking 36th in total defense (365.6 ypg). The injury concerns mainly lie in the secondary, where Stanford finished out the regular season 52nd in the nation. Their starting corner back and safety are uncertain to play against the Tar Heels.
North Carolina (8-4):
North Carolina may have surprised a few folks this season with the kind of product they put out on the gridiron. Not only is North Carolina getting a shot in the Hyundai Sun Bowl, but it might end up having a top-five draft pick in quarterback Mitch Trubisky.
Throughout his 2016 campaign, Mitch Trubisky completed 68.9 percent of his passes for 3,468 yards, 28 touchdowns and four interceptions. The injection of success at the signal-caller spot really opened the door for a balanced attack. That is the single reason why the Tar Heels were 8-4 and not 5-7.
The Tar Heels also found room to run on the ground thanks to tail back Elijah Hood. He had 145 carries for 858 yards and eight touchdowns. Running back T.J. Logan was right behind him with 578 rushing yards and seven touchdowns on another 101 touches. For whatever reason, Hood is also sitting out the Sun Bowl to focus on becoming the best fifth round draft choice he can be.
Mitch Trubisky’s 7-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio was powered by senior Swiss Army knife wide receiver Ryan Switzer. The multi-talented player leads the team with 91 receptions for 1,027 yards and five touchdowns. He’s also tied the NCAA record with five punt return touchdowns in 2013, added two more in 2015, and is one away of the career mark of eight held by Texas Tech’s Wes Welker.
The Tar Heels will not have to many struggles stopping the Cardinal passing attack in the Sun bowl. The nation’s 16th ranked secondary only gave up 186.3 yards per game this year. The struggles came against the run, where North Carolina finished 116th, allowing 232.2 yards a contest.
Trends and Notes:
The Cardinal are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 bowl games.
The Tar Heels are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games.
The Over is 4-1 in the Cardinal last 5 Bowl games.
The Under is 7-1 in the Tar Heels last 8 games overall.
The first Sun Bowl was played on January 1st, 1935 and was won by the El Paso All-Stars 25-21 over the Texas Rangers.
Texas Tech holds the most Sun Bowl appearances with nine (1-8).
Game Prediction:
North Carolina will look to expose the wounded Cardinal secondary, especially now that Elijah hood decided to sit out the Sun Bowl. Running back T.J. Logan should provide enough pop to keep the Stanford secondary honest.
Stanford has been abysmal throwing the ball in 2016 and now that Christian McCaffery is not an option it looks even worse. The Cardinal need to find away keep the chains moving via the ground attack and that could be a possibility against the North Carolina front seven.
The 54 points seem too much, considering the talent that will be on the sidelines for this match-up. That being said, the safe money play here is to take the more balanced offense. Yes, the North Carolina defense struggles against the run, but with no christian McCaffery that advantage should be nullified. Take the Tar Heels to win outright and enjoy your +120 play.
If you’d like to take advantage of this play or any other play for that matter, head HERE and sign-up to make some extra money to end the year.
