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NFL Picks: Struggling, Turbulent Jets Try To Get Things Right In San Diego

With veteran Michael Vick waiting in the wings, second-year quarterback Geno Smith is feeling the pressure to succeed immediately.

The New York Jets are in real trouble, and it’s for a reason that could have been seen a mile away: Their quarterback situation remains a mess. Can the Jets find a solution this week?

New York Jets @ San Diego Chargers

Sunday, October 5th – 4:25 PM ET

Odds: San Diego -6

Why The Jets Will Cover

They seem to play well when their backs are against the wall. When the controversy seems to build up and the pressure accumulates, head coach Rex Ryan is usually able to dig his way out of trouble and get his players to respond. The Jets do not do well when they face high expectations, buckling under the pressure. However, when the Jets face a different kind of pressure, the one that goes with the possibility of being humiliated or having a 3-13 kind of season, New York is good at picking up the pieces and turning a total debacle into something respectable.

The Jets are not a playoff team, and they weren’t last season, either. Yet, going into 2013, it seemed that the Jets were headed for a 3-13 type of year. Their quarterback situation was that bad, and Ryan seemed to be on his way out. However, the Jets and their coaching staff were able to give a simplified game plan to quarterback Geno Smith. He didn’t always come through, but when Smith did manage to limit turnovers and he was willing to throw his checkdown passes instead of taking risks down the field, the Jets used their defense to win games. That plan needs to resurface this week in San Diego, and if New York can find ways to contain San Diego tight end Antonio Gates, who continues to play at a high level, the Jets should be able to stay close enough to cover.

Why The Chargers Will Cover

This is a team that is playing terrific football right now. The Chargers put away the Jacksonville Jaguars at home, as any good team should. San Diego could have lost confidence and hope after a wrenching Week 1 loss to the Arizona Cardinals by one point on the road, but Arizona, as we’ve seen, is a really good team, good enough to beat the San Francisco 49ers without Carson Palmer. San Diego needed to shrug off that loss, and it did so the very next week by thoroughly outplaying the defending champion Seattle Seahawks.

That win cemented the Chargers’ confidence, and it has carried into the past two weeks. San Diego’s defense has been excellent in wins over Buffalo and Jacksonville, giving away very few easy points or big plays. That is exactly how the Chargers will cover the spread against an anemic Jets offense that could not do much in recent weeks against the Chicago Bears’ banged-up defense or against the Detroit Lions’ powerful front four. As long as San Diego plays a solid and steady game – it does not need to be spectacular – the Chargers should be in great shape against a quarterback, Geno Smith, who was angrily yelling at Jets fans as he left the field following the loss to Detroit last Sunday.

Outlook

If the Jets cover the number here, it will rate as a surprise. The Jets are known for pulling surprises, but San Diego is so locked in right now that the Chargers deserve the nod in this one.

Pick: Chargers -6

Written by Geoff Harvey

Geoff Harvey has been creating odds and betting models since his days in the womb, just don't ask him how he used to get his injury reports back then. Harvey contributes a wealth of quality and informational content that is a valuable resource for any handicapper.

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