‘Tis the season for upsets in the college-football bowl world. It’s been a mostly by-the-book start to the college football bowl season but things are about to heat up. Look for there to be a number of ranked teams that succumb to upsets on this week’s college football card.
#18 Stanford Cardinal vs. North Carolina Tar Heels
Hyundai Sun Bowl
The Cardinal are 9-3 going into this game, but star running back Christian McCaffrey has decided to skip the Sun Bowl in order to prepare for the NFL draft. That robs the Cardinal of their best weapon as they’re 116th in passing offense, and helps out the 8-4 Tar Heels, who are terrible against the run (114th in the country). There isn’t much history to go on between the two college football teams as they met last in a back-to-back series in 1997 and 1998, so this game is basically a blank slate and one that the Tar Heels should feel they can win. The Sun Bowl will be played in El Paso, Texas, so Stanford is a little closer in terms of proximity, but it might not matter without McCaffrey.
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. #21 Tennessee Volunteers
Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl
Nebraska’s offense isn’t very good, ranking 86th in the college football ranks. But the 9-3 Cornhuskers can run the ball decent enough, ranking 62nd, to give the 8-4 Volunteers trouble as Tennessee is 111th in rushing defense and 109th in total defense. Nebraska has to use that running game to wear down the Tennessee defense as the Cornhuskers are 22nd in the nation in time of possession, while Tennessee is 110th. These two have met twice in the past, both in bowl games. The Cornhuskers routed the Volunteers in the 1998 Orange Bowl, powering themselves to a national title. In 2000, the game was closer, but Nebraska won again. If the Volunteers have a major edge anywhere, it is that the Music City Bowl is played in Nashville, which is just a couple-hours drive from Knoxville.
#17 Florida Gators vs. Iowa Hawkeyes
Outback Bowl
The Gators are 8-4, but that’s on the back of an incredible defense that is sixth in total defense, tied for 10th in scoring defense in college football and third against the pass. However, the offense is miserable, ranking 115th in total offense, 113th in rushing defense and 83rd in passing offense. They’re looking into a mirror as they face the 8-4 Hawkeyes, who are 120th in total defense, but they can run a little bit, ranking 69th on the ground. Their defense is also 10th in points allowed, 24th in total defense and 27th against the pass. The red zone might be the difference-maker in this game, which is played in Tampa (which gives the edge to the Gators here). Florida is 127th in red-zone offense, and 15th in red-zone defense; Iowa is 10th in red-zone offense and 11th in red-zone defense, so taking your chances will be critical in this game. These two have met twice in the past, and both meetings came in the Outback Bowl as Iowa romped to a 20-point win over Florida in 2004, and the Gators returned the favor with a seven-point win two years later.
#20 LSU Tigers vs #13 Louisville Cardinals
Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl
There is a lot of excitement building for this contest as the Louisville Cardinals will trot out their Heisman Trophy winning quarterback against an SEC defense in this spot. However, that is just one of many underlying storylines that make this an intriguing affair.
The Cardinals have found themselves entrapped in a bizarre offseason scandal where they were apparently receiving leaked plays from a Wake Forest play-by-play broadcaster. Although it’s not the worst thing that can happen, it’s odd that head coach Bobby Petrino is acting as if he knew nothing about this.
Beyond that, there are offseason storylines that will affect this game. The Cardinals will be without two linebackers after they were hurt in a shooting. They’ll be forced to miss this bowl game.
The Cardinals are the higher ranked team in this spot but they look like they are ripe for the picking. Don’t be surprised if LSU takes charge and earns the win.
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