There aren’t many Week 17 NFL games with significant playoff implications. Usually, there are a whole slew of permutations of who can qualify for the final playoff spots and what needs to go right for them, but this year, things are a bit quiet. One important contest for Week 17 will the Green Bay Packers-Detroit Lions affair. The winner of this game will claim the NFC North title while the loser could fall out of the playoffs altogether (if the Washington Redskins win). In the event of a rare tie, the two NFC North teams would qualify while the Redskins would miss out.
The Lions have stumbled in back-to-back weeks and blown what was otherwise a comfortable division lead. Now they enter Week 17 having to hold serve against a red-hot Packers team that’s won five straight. It’s not the position they wanted to be in. However, they are still 7-1 at home this year and could send a statement about their legitimacy should they earn the win.
Moneyline: Packers -180
Handicap/Spread Odds: Packers -3 -120
Total O/U: 49.5
Last 5 Meetings: (Road/Home – Spread/Total)
| 9/25/2016 | DET 27 – GB 34 | GB -6 | O 47.5 |
| 12/3/2015 | GB 27 – DET 23 | GB -2.5 | O 46 |
| 11/15/2015 | DET 18 – GB 16 | DET 10.5 | U 50 |
| 12/28/2014 | DET 20 – GB 30 | GB -8.5 | O 46.5 |
| 9/21/2014 | GB 7 – DET 19 | DET -1 | U 51 |
On The Packers Side of the Ball (9-6 Record, 8-6-1 ATS)
Five weeks ago, the Packers were 4-6 and seemed dead in the water. Fast forward just over a month and they’re one of the hottest teams in the NFL. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers is back in the conversation for league MVP, the Packers have seemingly fixed their running game and their defense has held it together. The Packers are giving up 17.6 points per game during their winning streak. During the four-game losing streak that preceded this hot streak, the Packers had allowed at least 31 in each of those games.
Rodgers is unconscious right now as he’s thrown for nine touchdowns and no interceptions in December while posting a 120.7 quarterback rating. He’s getting the time he needs and he’s seeing the field clearly.
One thing the Packers will have to do in this spot is play better on the road than they have this season. They nearly lost at Chicago two weeks ago and prior to that, were blown out in back-to-back road games at Washington and Tennessee. They are just 3-4 on the road this year while the Lions are 7-1 at home. Home-field advantage could be a big factor in this contest.
Last 5 Results:
| 12/24/2016 | MIN | W 38-25 | W -6 | O 44.5 |
| 12/18/2016 | @CHI | W 30-27 | L -4.5 | O 40 |
| 12/11/2016 | SEA | W 38-10 | W 3 | O 47 |
| 12/4/2016 | HOU | W 21-13 | W -6.5 | U 44.5 |
| 11/28/2016 | @PHI | W 27-13 | W 4 | U 47 |
On The Lions Side of the Ball (9-6 Record, 8-7 ATS)
The Lions had been one of the NFL’s biggest surprise teams this season but it looks like the clock has struck midnight on this Cinderella. Unless they can really change their momentum and beat the Packers, they’re going to miss the playoffs and be viewed as a disappointment. They could have been in a better position had they won either of their last two contests, but they didn’t have great showings in either. They lost on the road to the New York Giants in a game where their offense was very sloppy. Then they lost last week to the Dallas Cowboys, blowing a 21-14 lead only to lose 42-21.
The Lions have defense may have some stats that look good – prior to last week, hadn’t allowed more than 20 points in eight straight – but the analytics would say otherwise. Their running game has been broken all season too and that’s what has led to some spotty outings. The good news is that the Packers defense is depleted and has been downright horrible at times this year. If quarterback Matt Stafford can avoid turnovers and the Lions can run the ball to play keep away, they could pull this off.
Last 5 Results:
| 12/26/2016 | @DAL | L 21-42 | L 6.5 | O 46.5 |
| 12/18/2016 | @NYG | L 6-17 | L 4 | U 42.5 |
| 12/11/2016 | CHI | W 20-17 | L -7.5 | U 42 |
| 12/4/2016 | @NO | W 28-13 | W 6.5 | U 53 |
| 11/24/2016 | MIN | W 16-13 | W -1.5 | U 42 |
Quick Analysis
The Lions momentum has shifted as they’ve lost two straight both straight up and against the spread. As for the Packers, they have won five straight while covering the spread in four of those games.
Prediction
The Lions have been viewed with an air of skepticism most of the season and it looks like that was accurate. They have trailed in the fourth quarter of almost all of their wins and when you start breaking down who they’ve beaten, it’s not very impressive. They have wins against the Chicago Bears, New Orleans Saints, Minnesota Vikings, Jacksonville Jaguars, Washington Redskins, Los Angeles Rams, Philadelphia Eagles and Indianapolis Colts. None of those teams would be in the playoffs if they started today. That being the case, it’s hard to back them in this spot against a red-hot Packers side. The Lions will fight valiantly as they have all season long but they’ll fall short.
Pick: Packers -3
Note: The betting odds are subject to change throughout the week leading up to kick-off, so please be aware of the possibility of line movements.
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