Two of the hottest teams in college football meet when the USC Trojans and the Penn State Nittany Lions square-off in the Grand Daddy of Them All, the Rose Bowl. The prestigious bowl game is set to get underway on Monday, January 2nd at 2 p.m. ET and can be seen on the ESPN Network. Coming into the contest in Pasadena, the Trojans are a -7 point favorite and the contest’s over/under is 59.5.
The Nittany Lion’s rise back to national prominence fell short of the College Football Playoff, but the Rose Bowl in Pasadena is pretty darn good. Penn state is making their first trip to Pasadena since the 2008 season, and their fans will be seeing a familiar opponent. Once again, the Trojans will be on the opposing sideline as two of the hottest teams in college football meet for all the marbles.
#5 Penn State (11-2):
Penn State ended up in fifth in the final College Football Playoff rankings after winning their last nine games. Head coach James Franklin has every right to be upset that his club got snubbed after claiming victory over Ohio State and the Wisconsin Badgers to win the BIG-10 Conference. Despite winning the best conference in college football, the Nittany Lions were left out in favor of the Buckeyes.
Quarterback Trace McSorley was just what the doctor ordered for a program that has risen from the ashes just a few years ago. The feisty competitor set single-season school records with 3,360 yards and 25 touchdown passes while only tossing five interceptions. The new found signal-caller comes into this game hot, after throwing four touchdowns in the BIG-10 title game.
The Nittany Lion offense stays balanced by toting the rock over the ground as much as tossing it down the gridiron. When it’s time to get the run game going they look to Saquon Barkley, who won the conference’s offensive player of the year. He spearheaded a unit that led the BIG-10 in plays of at least 20, 30, 40 and 50 yards. Altogether, Barkley sprinted for just over 1,300 yards with a team-high 16 trips to pay-dirt.
When Trace McSorely throws the ball to move the chains, he looks to talented wide out Chris Goodwin. This year, Goodwin has gashed teams for just under 800 yards on 50 catches and nine scores.
Tight end Mike Gesicki also contributes in the passing attack, catching another 47 balls for 668 yards and four touchdowns. If those two are bottled up, then running back Saquon Barkley brings his 36 grabs for over 350 yards and three trips to the promised land to the mix.
Wide receiver Saeed Blacknail was officially suspended for the Rose Bowl on Monday. This is a big loss because Penn State’s winning streak is still alive thanks in large part to Blacknall. The junior wide out caught six passes for 155 yards and two touchdowns in a 38-31 win over Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship Game.
Penn State’s 24th ranked defense (352 ypg) will be tested by a rejuvenated Trojan offense. Fortunately for the Nittany Lions, their 25th ranked secondary has plenty of talent to slow down the red-hot USC quarterback. The Nittany Lions have been a little vulnerable against the run, allowing 153.5 yards per game (49th).
Starting line backer Manny Bowen was also suspended for the Rose Bowl. The defensive stand-out played in all 13 games, finishing with 68 tackles, 8.5 tackles for loss and two sacks.
#9 USC (9-3):
The Trojans also march into the Rose Bowl with a nice winning streak of its own. USC has won eight straight games after a dismal 1-3 start that included a blow-out loss to Alabama. But they rebounded nicely and beat Colorado, the Pac-12 runner-up, and the Playoff-bound Huskies. Furthermore, the Trojans won each of their last six games by double digits.
Everything changed when freshman Sam Darnold took over the starting job just four games into the year. The new face has been stellar since, completing 213 balls for over 2,300 yards and throwing 26 touchdown passes. He also completed 68.1 percent of his passes and only served-up eight picks.
Like Penn State, the Trojans want to remain balanced on offense for the Rose Bowl on Monday. Running back Ronald Jones will look to provide that advantage. This season, he has jolted for over 1,000 yards and is averaging a gaudy 7.8 yards per carry. He is the Trojan’s red zone threat via the ground, racking-up 11 touchdowns in 2016.
Sam Darnold has a trio of explosive receivers to spread the football around to when he drops back to pass in the Rose Bowl. Together, the trio has amassed just under 160 catches for over 1,900 yards and 16 scores. Senior leader JuJu Smith-Schuster will look to go out with a bang. He leads the Trojans with 781 yards and nine touchdowns.
USC will be tested by the explosive Nittany Lion offense, but they allowed the second-fewest plays of at least 10 yards in the PAC-12. The secondary is the weak spot, allowing 225.9 yards per game, which is 64th in the nation. The front seven held their own, holding opposing teams to just 133.7 yards per game (29th).
Trends and Notes:
The Trojans are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
The Nittany Lions are 8-0-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
The Under is 7-1 in the Trojans last 8 games overall.
The Over is 5-1 in the Nittany Lions last 6 games overall.
In 1923, the stadium was named “The Rose Bowl” and is dedicated by hosting its first college football game. Start of play was delayed more than an hour after Penn State’s team was stuck in traffic. USC defeated Penn State, 14-2. This original stadium seated 57,000.
Game Prediction:
USC enters this match-up as hot as anybody in the country. The injection of Sam Darnold in the line-up made all the difference. Now, a rejuvenated JuJu Smith-Schuster and company will find plenty of ways to score on Penn State.
Penn State may not have all the impressive offensive or defensive stats, but they have mojo on their side. This gritty squad proved their never say die attitude against Wisconsin in the BIG-10 championship. The Nittany Lions have played several defenses that are statistically better, and should also find ways to score on the Trojans.
Las Vegas set this over/under at 62 and the public has pushed it down to 59. I don’t see why. Both teams will be aggressive and break big plays on the others defense. Take the over 59 and sit back and enjoy what could be the best bowl game of them all.
I also would recommend taking the Nittany Lions to cover the +7. I realize USC has beaten all their foes by double-digit margins over the last few months, but this is the scrappy Lions and this is the Grand Daddy of Them All.
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