It doesn’t matter that the College Football Playoff Semifinal Bowls are over, We’re still playing the second tier bowls and the Monday after New Year’s begins with the No. 17 Florida Gators (8-4) facing off against the Iowa Hawkeyes (8-4) in the Outback Bowl. Kick off is 11 a.m. on Jan. 2 at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa Bay, Fla.
The Game: No. 17 Florida vs. Iowa (+3, 40.5 O/U)
No. 17 Florida Gators (8-4)
Somehow, and no one can explain it to me, the Florida Gators put together an eight-win season and won the SEC East this season. With a plodding offense, constant injuries and a head coach with the most punchable face outside of Trump Tower, the Gators managed to fall into the SEC Championship game where they were roundly destroyed by No. 1 Alabama.
Florida won on luck and its defense, that just gave up 17.9 points per game. The offense was one of the worst in the SEC, averaging just 23.4 points per game, and that’s counting their games against Kentucky, UMass, and North Texas. Half their team is questionable for the Outback Bowl, including quarterback Luke Del Rio. If he can’t go, it’ll be Austin Appleby again and no one wants to see that.
The Gators down’t run the ball particularly well, with leading rushing Jordan Scarlett averaging 4.8 yards and carry with 795 yards and six touchdowns. Florida makes up for it with a horrible passing game regardless of who’s playing QB. Their leading receiver, Antonio Callaway, has an ominous 666 yards receiving this year with 47 catches and three scores.
Defense is where the real NFL prospects are on this team, led by cornerback Teez Tabor. Tabor looks like a Top 10 pick in April’s draft. Inside linebacker Jarrad Davis will likely go in the second round after finishing the season with 60 tackles, sic for a loss, two sacks and four pass defenses.
Iowa Hawkeyes (8-4)
The Hawkeyes punched their ticket to a money bowl thanks to a three-game win streak to end the season including an epic 14-13 win over then No. 3-ranked Michigan that knocked the Wolverines out of the College Football Playoff race.
Like the Gators, Iowa did most of its best work on defense, holding opponents to 18.6 points per game. On offense, the Hawkeyes managed just 25.5 points per game. Iowa did have more stability at the quarterback position thanks to a full 11 games for C.J. Beathard. Beathard completed 58.2 percent of his passes for 1,730 yards and 14 touchdowns with seven picks and he did it all with a wide receiver corps that couldn’t scare a cat up a tree.
The Hawkeyes do have to decent running backs. Wadley Akrum averaged 6.4 yards per carry on his way to 861 yards and nine touchdowns. LeShun Daniels was good for 5.1 yards per carry, gaining 855 yards and scoring eight touchdowns.
On defense, Iowa has its own first round cornerback in Desmond King. King had two picks, seven passes defended, one fumble recovery, a safety and 52 tackles this season. Rushing the passer will be Jaleel Johnson and Matt Nelson. Johnon recorded 7.5 sacks, 10 tackles for a loss and 51 total tackles this season and looks like a solid second round NFL draft pick.
Trends and Notes
The Outback Bowl has been played since 1986 and was originally called the Hall of Fame Bowl until 1995. Boston College beat No. 17 Georgia in that first game 27-24.
Four Outback Bowls have been decided by overtime, with the 2011 contest between No. 11 Michigan State and No. 16 Georgia requiring three overtime possessions to settle. The Spartans won 33-30.
Since 1995 the Outback Bowl has matched up teams from the SEC and the Big 10. Last year No. 23 Tennessee beat No. 16 Northwestern 45-6.
The Pick
As bad as Florida’s offense is, they’ve faced the fire in the SEC and came out on top enough times to at least claim the eastern division. Iowa hasn’t won a bowl since 2010 and has been blown out in its last two (45-28 by Tennessee in 2014 and 45-16 by Stanford in 2015). That probably makes the Gators a safe bet. Florida 27, Iowa 24
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