The Oakland Raiders are currently the No. 2 seed in the AFC. They’ve won 12 games, have had an epic turnaround and their head coach is among the frontrunners for Head Coach of the Year. Even so, they’re a team that’s in trouble. That’s because they lost franchise quarterback Derek Carr to a broken leg last week. While they were considered to be one of the favorites to emerge from the AFC, now they’re entire playoff run is in jeopardy.
The Raiders will face the defending Super Bowl champions on Sunday and while the Denver Broncos have been eliminated, they can put a sever dent in the Raiders playoff chances by beating them. Oakland could potentially climb as high as the No. 1 seed in the AFC if they were to win and New England were to lose. However, what’s a more likely scenario is that the Raiders lose and the Kansas City Chiefs win, which would drop the Raiders from the No. 2 seed to No. 5, which means no home-field advantage and no first-round bye.
Moneyline: Broncos -125
Handicap/Spread Odds: Broncos -1 -115
Total O/U: 40.5
Last 5 Meetings: (Road/Home – Spread/Total)
| 11/6/2016 | DEN 20 – OAK 30 | OAK -1 | O 44.5 |
| 12/13/2015 | OAK 15 – DEN 12 | OAK 6 | U 43 |
| 10/11/2015 | DEN 16 – OAK 10 | DEN -5 | U 44.5 |
| 12/28/2014 | OAK 14 – DEN 47 | DEN -16.5 | O 49 |
| 11/9/2014 | DEN 41 – OAK 17 | DEN -12.5 | O 50.5 |
On The Raiders Side of the Ball (12-3 Record, 10-5 ATS)
The Raiders running game and defense have been spotty this season, which means that most of their success has been built around their stellar passing game. Now they don’t have that to lean on, which could be a problem this week as well as in the playoffs. The Raiders have to focus on this week, though, because if they can win, they’ll have two weeks to get Matt McGloin for a home game. If not, they’ll be on the road next week in a tough spot.
The challenge is that the Broncos are coming off a game where their defense was embarrassed. On top of that, the Raiders pummeled the Broncos on the ground in the team’s first meeting, producing over 200 rushing yards. Denver isn’t likely to allow that to happen again. McGloin will have to be at least somewhat effective as a passer if they are to keep the Broncos from stacking the box, but nobody is sure that’ll work.
Last 5 Results:
| 12/24/2016 | IND | W 33-25 | W -3.5 | O 52 |
| 12/18/2016 | @SD | W 19-16 | W -2.5 | U 49.5 |
| 12/8/2016 | @KC | L 13-21 | L 3.5 | U 46 |
| 12/4/2016 | BUF | W 38-24 | W -3 | O 48.5 |
| 11/27/2016 | CAR | W 35-32 | L -3.5 | O 48.5 |
On The Broncos Side of the Ball (8-7 Record, 8-7 ATS)
As mentioned, the Broncos were humiliated on national television last week as the Kansas City Chiefs ran up the score on them. It got so bad that the Chiefs had a defensive lineman throw for a touchdown pass. The Broncos aren’t heading to the playoffs but they are definitely going to feel sour about that effort. It’s unlikely that they’ll want to end the season with another ugly performance.
The good news for them is that they have a very easy matchup in front of them. The Raiders defense is ranked just 24th in the NFL and their rush defense is 21st. As long as the Broncos offense can put forth some semblance of a running game (something they haven’t done recently) then they should be able to stay in control of this contest. On defense, they should have an easy time of things against McGloin. They’ll stack the box, force him to beat them but that probably won’t work.
Last 5 Results:
| 12/25/2016 | @KC | L 10-33 | L 3.5 | O 38 |
| 12/18/2016 | NE | L 3-16 | L 3 | U 43 |
| 12/11/2016 | @TEN | L 10-13 | L 2 | U 44 |
| 12/4/2016 | @JAC | W 20-10 | W -3.5 | U 38.5 |
| 11/27/2016 | KC | L 27-30 x | L -3.5 | O 40 |
Quick Analysis
The Raiders ATS stats can be thrown out the window. They’ve been a reliable team to bet this year but now McGloin is under center. They won’t be the same team. As for the Broncos, they’ve been a huge disappointment. They’ve failed to cover three straight.
Prediction
This is just a really bad matchup for the Raiders. The Broncos remember what happened last week and they remember their first performance against Oakland when they got worked over in the trenches. They’ll want to make amends for both outings. Look for the Broncos to edge Oakland out in a tight game and put a dent in their playoff run. The Broncos are struggling but the Raiders are too hard to trust without their team MVP, Derek Carr.
Pick: Broncos -1
Note: The betting odds are subject to change throughout the week leading up to kick-off, so please be aware of the possibility of line movements.
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